National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

Inflation Steady Before War
Inflation Steady Before War
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After months of downward trend, inflation held steady at an eight-month low in February. This report does not reflect the recent surge in oil prices due to Iran conflict beginning ...
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
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Single-family permitting softened over the course of 2025 and finished the year weaker than the prior year. After showing some resilience in 2024, permitting activity gradually lost momentum as elevated ...
Existing Home Sales Rose in February
Existing Home Sales Rose in February
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Following the sharp decline last month, existing home sales bounced back in February as housing affordability improved. Lower mortgage rates and moderating home price growth helped pull buyers back to ...
AD&C Loan Volume Falls Despite Declining Financing Costs
AD&C Loan Volume Falls Despite Declining Financing Costs
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Single-family construction lending fell in the fourth quarter, according to data released by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The decline in the outstanding volume of acquisition, development and construction ...
Lower Mortgage Rates Boost Refinancing While Purchase Activity Slows
Lower Mortgage Rates Boost Refinancing While Purchase Activity Slows
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Mortgage application activity increased month-over-month as the 30-year fixed mortgage rates reached a three-year low. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, ...
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
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The U.S. labor market weakened in February, as payroll employment declined and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The cooling labor market could place the Federal Reserve in a challenging ...
Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
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Home builders are keenly aware of the complex long-term outlook ahead for the home building industry. A recent NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI survey asked builders to assess the impact of 14 ...
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
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Though new and existing homes remain largely unaffordable, the needle moved slightly in the right direction in the second half of 2025, according to the latest data from the National ...
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
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Mortgage rates continued to decline in February, dipping below 6% in the last week of February. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.05% last month, 5 basis ...
House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Fourth Quarter 2025
House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Fourth Quarter 2025
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U.S. house prices continued to rise at the close of 2025, though the pace of growth has slowed compared with the rapid gains of previous years. Elevated mortgage rates, affordability ...
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The missing middle construction sector includes development of medium-density housing, including townhouses, duplexes and other small multifamily properties. While townhouse construction has trended higher in recent quarters, the multifamily segment of the missing middle (apartments in 2 to 4 unit properties) has disappointed. For 2021,...

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 41 states and the District of Columbia in April compared to the previous month while eight states lost jobs. North Dakota remained unchanged. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April,...

NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates custom home building posted a year-over-years gain for the first quarter of 2022. There were 46,000 total custom building starts during the first quarter of the year. This...

As rising mortgage rates and higher home prices continued to price out first-time and young homebuyers and reduce affordability, existing home sales dropped to the lowest level since June 2020, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). However, the trend in home price appreciation...

Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing turned downward in the first quarter of 2022, according to the latest results from NAHB’s Multifamily Market Survey (MMS). The MMS produces two main indices. The survey’s Multifamily Production Index (MPI) decreased six points to 48 in...

According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, during the first quarter of 2022 single-family attached starts totaled 36,000, which is 16% higher than the first quarter of 2021. Over the last four quarters, townhouse...

The single-family built-for-rent sector continues to expand as housing affordability headwinds increase. According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, there were approximately 13,000 single-family built-for-rent (SFBFR) starts during the first quarter of 2022. This...

Single-family starts declined in April, as higher interest rates weighed on housing affordability, producing a fifth straight decline for the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI. Additionally, the cost and availability of materials, lumber, labor and lots remain key supply-side headwinds. Single-family permits decreased 4.6% to a 1.11...

In a sign that the housing market is now slowing, builder confidence took a steep drop in May as growing affordability challenges in the form of rapidly rising interest rates, double-digit price increases for material costs and ongoing home price appreciation are taking a toll...

Over the first three months of 2022, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 278,189. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a 0.8% increase over the March 2021 level of 276,110. Year-to-date ending in March, single-family permits declined in three...

According to NAHB estimates, the total count of second homes was 7.15 million in 2020, accounting for 5.11% of the total housing stock. This represents the most recent data available. As of 2020, the state with the largest stock of second homes was Florida (1.04...

During the first quarter of 2022, credit became tighter on loans for Acquisition, Development & Construction (AD&C) according to NAHB’s Survey on AD&C Financing. The NAHB survey produces a net easing index that summarizes the change in credit conditions, similar to the net easing index...

According to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the prices of goods used in residential construction ex-energy (not seasonally adjusted) climbed 0.5% in April, following upwardly revised increases of 1.9% and 2.4% in March and February,...

Housing affordability in the first quarter of 2022 looks starkly different depending on the interest rate assumed in the calculation. The average mortgage interest rate for the quarter was 3.86%. But by the end of April, it was 5.11%. If the former is used, then...

Per the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest month’s surveys (the week ending May 6), the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rate rapidly grew to 5.53%, marking the steepest interest rate increase on record. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased by...

Consumer prices increased at a somewhat slower pace in April, the smallest monthly increase since August 2021, though inflation remains near a 40-year high. The food at home and shelter index rose at their fastest pace since November 1980 and April 1991. Though gas prices...

In the first quarter of 2022, the Federal Reserve Board’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS) on Bank Lending Practices showed a significant net share of banks reporting more relaxed lending standards and weaker demand for most categories of residential real estate (RRE) loans. “Significant”...

Population growth in the United States amounted to just 0.12% in 2021 (between July 2020 and July 2021), the slowest rate on record dating back to 1900. The sharp slowdown in population growth over the past two years is almost entirely due to pandemic-related factors,...

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