Housing’s share of the economy rose to 16.1% in the first quarter of 2024. The share remained below 16% for all of 2023 at 15.9% in each of the four quarters. This increase to above 16% marks the first-time housing’s share of GDP is above 16% since 2022. In the first quarter, the more cyclical…
Based on new demographic analysis of 2020 Census population counts, the Census Bureau estimates that children between the ages of 0 to 4 were undercounted by over one million. This age range is historically undercounted in the population surveys but with the addition of conducting the decennial census in the midst of a pandemic, the…
As economist Milton Friedman once quipped, monetary policy has a history of operating with “long and variable lags.”[1] What Friedman was expressing is that it takes some time for the true effects of monetary policy, like the changing of the federal funds rate, to permeate completely through the larger economy. While some industries, like housing,…
Consumer prices continued to rise in March, with shelter and gasoline prices driving over half of the total increase. This marks the third consecutive strong reading. Despite a slowdown in the year-over-year increase, shelter costs continue to put upward pressure on inflation, accounting for over 60% of the total increase in all items excluding food…
Consumer confidence held steady in March, with optimism about current conditions offset by concerns about the future economic outlook. This pessimism was primarily driven by persistent inflation, especially elevated food and gas prices. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, stood virtually unchanged at 104.7 in March, the lowest level since November 2023….
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee held the federal funds rate constant at a top target of 5.5% at the conclusion of its March meeting. The Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as part of quantitative tightening and balance sheet normalization. Marking a fifth consecutive meeting holding…
