National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

Inflation Steady Before War
Inflation Steady Before War
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After months of downward trend, inflation held steady at an eight-month low in February. This report does not reflect the recent surge in oil prices due to Iran conflict beginning ...
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
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Single-family permitting softened over the course of 2025 and finished the year weaker than the prior year. After showing some resilience in 2024, permitting activity gradually lost momentum as elevated ...
Existing Home Sales Rose in February
Existing Home Sales Rose in February
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Following the sharp decline last month, existing home sales bounced back in February as housing affordability improved. Lower mortgage rates and moderating home price growth helped pull buyers back to ...
AD&C Loan Volume Falls Despite Declining Financing Costs
AD&C Loan Volume Falls Despite Declining Financing Costs
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Single-family construction lending fell in the fourth quarter, according to data released by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The decline in the outstanding volume of acquisition, development and construction ...
Lower Mortgage Rates Boost Refinancing While Purchase Activity Slows
Lower Mortgage Rates Boost Refinancing While Purchase Activity Slows
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Mortgage application activity increased month-over-month as the 30-year fixed mortgage rates reached a three-year low. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, ...
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
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The U.S. labor market weakened in February, as payroll employment declined and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The cooling labor market could place the Federal Reserve in a challenging ...
Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
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Home builders are keenly aware of the complex long-term outlook ahead for the home building industry. A recent NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI survey asked builders to assess the impact of 14 ...
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
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Though new and existing homes remain largely unaffordable, the needle moved slightly in the right direction in the second half of 2025, according to the latest data from the National ...
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
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Mortgage rates continued to decline in February, dipping below 6% in the last week of February. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.05% last month, 5 basis ...
House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Fourth Quarter 2025
House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Fourth Quarter 2025
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U.S. house prices continued to rise at the close of 2025, though the pace of growth has slowed compared with the rapid gains of previous years. Elevated mortgage rates, affordability ...
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The construction labor market remains tight, but the total number of open construction sector jobs has likely reached a cyclical peak as economic activity slows in response to tighter financial conditions. The count of open construction jobs was little changed in May, falling from 440,000...

The earlier June post highlighted the rising number and share of Hispanics in the construction industry. Hispanics now account for almost a third of the construction workforce, according to the 2021 Current Population Survey. In this post, we focus on the regional and state-level differences...

NAHB analysis of the Census Bureau’s quarterly state and local tax data shows that $672.9 billion in taxes were paid by property owners in the four quarters ending Q1 2022 (not seasonally adjusted), a 0.1% quarterly increase.[1] State and local governments collected $1.9 trillion over...

NAHB analysis of the Census Construction Spending data shows that private residential construction spending stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $938.2 billion in May. It was 0.2% up over the upwardly revised April estimates of $935.9 billion. On a year-over-year basis, total...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased in 46 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2022. New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, and Michigan saw modest GDP growth. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the percent change in real GDP...

The top 10 builders captured 34.2% of new single-family home closings in 2021, the highest percentage on record based on data released by BUILDER Magazine. This share represents 264,426 closings out of the 774,000 new single-family home sales reported by the U.S. Census in 2021....

Consumer confidence dropped again in June as inflation stayed at decades high and continued to temper consumers’ economic outlook, which tumbled to the lowest level in nearly a decade. Though spending intentions for homes, cars, and major appliances held relatively steady, consumer spending will continue...

Recently, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) undertook a joint research effort to find out how much government regulation adds to the cost of building new multifamily housing via a survey distributed to multifamily developers. The research...

After posting four consecutive monthly declines on rising mortgage rates and worsening affordability conditions, new home sales posted a solid gain in May as some buyers rushed into the market in advance of the Federal Reserve’s June interest rate hike. Sales of newly built, single-family...

Hispanics are an important source of labor in the U.S. construction industry, where skilled labor shortage is a long-term issue. One in three workers in the US construction industry is Hispanic. The latest labor force statistics from the 2021 Current Population Survey show that Non-Hispanic...

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 32 states and the District of Columbia in May compared to the previous month while 18 states lost jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 390,000 in May, following a gain of...

As rising mortgage rates and higher home prices continued to price out homebuyers, existing home sales declined for four consecutive months, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). However, the trend in home price appreciation continued as supply remained tight. The median existing home...

In the first quarter of 2022, multifamily home building showed greater growth across all regional markets compared to the first quarter of 2021, per the NAHB’s Home Building Geography Index (HBGI). Apartment construction far outpaced single-family building in all regional geographies but especially in lower...

Single-family starts declined further in May, as higher interest rates weighed on housing affordability. This follows a sixth straight monthly decline for the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI. Additionally, the cost and availability of materials, lumber, labor and lots remain key supply-side headwinds. Single-family permits decreased 5.5%...

To fight persistent inflation, the Federal Reserve has committed to significantly cooling demand. This approach reflects a non-monetary policy failure to fix underlying supply-side challenges that are pushing up inflation. The Fed lacks policy tools to make these supply-side fixes, so it must rely on...

Rising inflation and higher mortgage rates are slowing traffic of prospective home buyers and putting a damper on builder sentiment. In a troubling sign for the housing market, builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes posted its sixth straight monthly decline in...

The prices of goods used in residential construction climbed 1.8% in May (not seasonally adjusted) and have increased 19.4%, year-over-year, according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report. Prices have surged 40.4% since January 2020. Building materials (i.e., goods inputs to residential construction, less...

Over the first four months of 2022, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 377,713. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a 1.7% decline over the April 2021 level of 384,196.   Year-to-date ending in April, single-family permits declined in...

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