National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

Inflation Steady Before War
Inflation Steady Before War
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After months of downward trend, inflation held steady at an eight-month low in February. This report does not reflect the recent surge in oil prices due to Iran conflict beginning ...
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
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Single-family permitting softened over the course of 2025 and finished the year weaker than the prior year. After showing some resilience in 2024, permitting activity gradually lost momentum as elevated ...
Existing Home Sales Rose in February
Existing Home Sales Rose in February
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Following the sharp decline last month, existing home sales bounced back in February as housing affordability improved. Lower mortgage rates and moderating home price growth helped pull buyers back to ...
AD&C Loan Volume Falls Despite Declining Financing Costs
AD&C Loan Volume Falls Despite Declining Financing Costs
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Single-family construction lending fell in the fourth quarter, according to data released by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The decline in the outstanding volume of acquisition, development and construction ...
Lower Mortgage Rates Boost Refinancing While Purchase Activity Slows
Lower Mortgage Rates Boost Refinancing While Purchase Activity Slows
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Mortgage application activity increased month-over-month as the 30-year fixed mortgage rates reached a three-year low. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, ...
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
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The U.S. labor market weakened in February, as payroll employment declined and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The cooling labor market could place the Federal Reserve in a challenging ...
Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
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Home builders are keenly aware of the complex long-term outlook ahead for the home building industry. A recent NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI survey asked builders to assess the impact of 14 ...
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
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Though new and existing homes remain largely unaffordable, the needle moved slightly in the right direction in the second half of 2025, according to the latest data from the National ...
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
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Mortgage rates continued to decline in February, dipping below 6% in the last week of February. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.05% last month, 5 basis ...
House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Fourth Quarter 2025
House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Fourth Quarter 2025
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U.S. house prices continued to rise at the close of 2025, though the pace of growth has slowed compared with the rapid gains of previous years. Elevated mortgage rates, affordability ...
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In the first quarter of 2022, non-real estate secured consumer credit, per the Federal Reserve’s latest G.19 Consumer Credit report, grew at a seasonal adjusted annual rate of 9.7%, with revolving debt growing at 21.4% and nonrevolving at 6.1%. Total consumer credit currently stands at...

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 428,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%. The April’s data indicate that the labor market remained healthy despite surging inflation, tighter financial conditions, and the war in Ukraine. Construction industry employment (both residential and non-residential)...

Following a 25 basis points increase in March, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee unanimously approved a further 50 basis points increase for the federal funds target rate, the largest increase for the rate in more than two decades. The Fed also provided details for...

The construction labor market remains tight, as the industry sees a rising number of job openings year-over-year. The count of open construction jobs increased slightly to 396,000 unfilled positions in March. The highest measure in the history of the data series (going back to late...

The Census Bureau recently released its 2021 Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) annual population estimates. Between 2020 and 2021, 251 (65%) of the 384 MSAs within the 50 states and the District of Columbia experienced population increases, albeit small on percentage terms. The MSAs’ combined total...

NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that total private residential construction spending rose 1% in March after an increase of 0.7% in February. Spending stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $882 billion. Total private residential construction spending was 18.4% higher than...

As the construction labor market remains tight and skilled labor shortages persist, wages in construction continue to rise, often outpacing and exceeding typical earnings in other industries. According to the latest Current Employment Statistics (CES) report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), average hourly...

The most recent data release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that personal income increased 0.5% in March after a 0.7% gain in February. Gains in personal income are largely driven by increases in compensation of employees. However, it was 11.6% lower than...

Housing’s share of the economy edged higher at the start of 2022 due in part to a surprise drop in growth. For the first quarter of 2022, overall GDP growth declined at a 1.4% annual rate, driven by increased inventories and a jump in imports....

In the first quarter of 2022, real GDP declined for the first time since the pandemic recession, as inflation surged to a 40-year high and supply chain disruptions remain persistent. This quarter’s decrease reflected a deceleration in private inventory investment, decreases in exports and government...

The Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey (CPS/HVS) reported the U.S. homeownership rate at 65.4% in the first quarter of 2022, which is statistically unchanged from the last quarter reading. The national homeowner vacancy rate slipped to a record low of 0.8%, while the rental vacancy...

NAHB analysis of the most recent Census estimates concerning sources of financing for new home sales reveals that conventional loans accounted for 78.5% of new home sales in the first quarter of 2022, the highest share in more than a decade. Conventional loans financed over...

New single-family home sales declined in March as mortgage rates jumped to the highest levels since the start of the pandemic. Per Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 3.89 at the end of February and had climbed to 4.67 at the end of...

The financial performance of any company is directly linked to the industry environment in which it operates. Factors such as the number and size of its competitors, barriers to enter or exit, capital requirements, economies of scale, or the bargaining power of customers and suppliers...

Private fixed investment in dormitories stood at a seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of $3.08 billion in the last quarter of 2021, according to the data released by Bureau of Economic Analysis. Student housing investment was 2.9% higher over the third quarter of 2021. However,...

An earlier post revealed that 67% of buyers who were actively engaged in the process of finding a home in the 1st quarter of 2022 have spent 3+ months searching for a home without success. By far, the most common reason these long-term searchers cite...

A growing segment of prospective home buyers aren’t moving past the planning stage. At its peak in mid-2021, 61% were actively trying to find a home to buy. Now, the share is back to pre-pandemic levels, at 46%. This is clear evidence that higher mortgage...

Buyers’ expectations for housing affordability continue to sour. In the first quarter of 2022, 81% said they could afford less than half the homes for-sale in their markets – the highest share since before the pandemic. At its lowest point in the 4th quarter of...

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