National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

Single-Family Starts Remain Soft in January on Affordability Concerns
Single-Family Starts Remain Soft in January on Affordability Concerns
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Elevated construction costs and constrained affordability conditions led to a reduction in single-family housing starts in January. However, led by solid multifamily production, overall housing starts increased 7.2% in January ...
Inflation Steady Before War
Inflation Steady Before War
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After months of downward trend, inflation held steady at an eight-month low in February. This report does not reflect the recent surge in oil prices due to Iran conflict beginning ...
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
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Single-family permitting softened over the course of 2025 and finished the year weaker than the prior year. After showing some resilience in 2024, permitting activity gradually lost momentum as elevated ...
Existing Home Sales Rose in February
Existing Home Sales Rose in February
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Following the sharp decline last month, existing home sales bounced back in February as housing affordability improved. Lower mortgage rates and moderating home price growth helped pull buyers back to ...
AD&C Loan Volume Falls Despite Declining Financing Costs
AD&C Loan Volume Falls Despite Declining Financing Costs
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Single-family construction lending fell in the fourth quarter, according to data released by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The decline in the outstanding volume of acquisition, development and construction ...
Lower Mortgage Rates Boost Refinancing While Purchase Activity Slows
Lower Mortgage Rates Boost Refinancing While Purchase Activity Slows
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Mortgage application activity increased month-over-month as the 30-year fixed mortgage rates reached a three-year low. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, ...
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
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The U.S. labor market weakened in February, as payroll employment declined and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The cooling labor market could place the Federal Reserve in a challenging ...
Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
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Home builders are keenly aware of the complex long-term outlook ahead for the home building industry. A recent NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI survey asked builders to assess the impact of 14 ...
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
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Though new and existing homes remain largely unaffordable, the needle moved slightly in the right direction in the second half of 2025, according to the latest data from the National ...
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
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Mortgage rates continued to decline in February, dipping below 6% in the last week of February. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.05% last month, 5 basis ...
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Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 431,000 in March, and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% from 3.8%. The labor market recovery is continuing, as employment in some sectors, such as professional and business services, financial activities, and retail sectors, is now above pre-pandemic levels....

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in all 50 states and the District of Columbia in 2021 as the economy continued to recover from the COVID-19 crisis. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the percent change increase in real GDP ranged from...

Among first-time buyers, both a shower stall and tub in the primary bath ranked as the most popular of the 18 bathroom features listed in the NAHB study, What Home Buyers Really Want, 2021 Edition. The study asked first-time, as well as repeat, home buyers...

After dropping to a one-year low last month, consumer confidence rebounded slightly in March as strong job growth offset consumer’s concerns about the Ukraine crisis and decades-high inflation. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, rose 1.5 points from 105.7 to 107.2 in...

The construction labor market remains tight, as the industry sees a rising number of job openings year-over-year. The count of open construction jobs remained steady at 381,000 unfilled positions in February. The highest measure in the history of the data series (going back to late...

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia in February compared to the previous month while Arkansas and Alaska lost jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 678,000 in February, following a gain...

Much like other home buyers, those buying their first homes rate double sinks and walk-in pantries as the most popular of 30 kitchen features listed in the recent NAHB study, What Home Buyers Really Want, 2021 Edition. In the study, first-time (and other) home buyers...

New single-family home sales posted a second monthly decline in February as housing demand was affected by a jump in mortgage rates. After starting at 3.1% in December, rates increased to 3.45% in January and 3.76% in February, per Freddie Mac. Additionally, builders continue to...

Among first-time home buyers, a laundry room ranked as the most popular of the more than 200 home and community features listed in the recent NAHB study, What Home Buyers Really Want, 2021 Edition. The study is based on a nationwide survey of 3,247 recent...

NAHB analysis of the Census Bureau’s quarterly tax data shows that $672.5 billion in taxes were paid by property owners in the four quarters ending Q4 2021 (not seasonally adjusted), a 1.0% quarterly increase.[1] Four-quarter property tax revenues declined 0.6% in Q3 2021, the second...

As rising mortgage rates and home prices continued to price out homebuyers and reduce affordability, existing home sales dropped to a six-month low in February, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Furthermore, home price appreciation is expected to slow in the coming quarters...

Single-family starts posted a small increase in February, as lack of resale inventory continues to support housing demand despite higher interest rates. The availability of materials, lumber, labor and lots remain key headwinds, with access to labor in particular likely to become more challenging in...

The first of many expected Federal Reserve hikes of the short-term federal funds rate was announced today. Combined with future balance sheet runoff, these monetary policy moves will lead to higher mortgage rates in 2022 and 2023 as the Fed attempts to curb elevated inflation....

The prices of goods used in residential construction ex-energy climbed 1.6% in February (not seasonally adjusted), according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Building materials prices increased 20.4%, year-over-year, and have risen 31.3% since January 2020....

Ongoing lumber and building material supply-side constraints and rising construction costs and expectations of higher interest rates continue to negatively affect builder sentiment even as buyer demand remains relatively solid. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes moved two points lower to...

Over the first month of 2022, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 83,404. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a 0.6% decline over the January 2021 level of 83,921. Year-to-date ending in January, single-family permits declined in three out...

As described in a previous post, NAHB’s recently released its 2022 Priced-Out Estimates, showing that 87.5 million households are not able to afford a median priced new home, and that an additional 117,932 would be priced out if the price goes up by $1,000. A...

The latest results from the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States, i.e., the Flow of Funds, show that in 2021, the aggregate market value of all owner-occupied real estate in the United States experienced the largest quarterly increases on record. From $36.8...

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