Growing Job Openings Leading to Higher Interest Rates

Financial conditions continue to tighten, as the 10-year Treasury rate increased to above 4.75%. Among the factors leading to higher rates (more debt issuance, higher-for-longer monetary policy expectations, long-term fiscal deficit conditions, and strong current GDP growth forecasts) was a surprise jump in August for the total number of open, unfilled jobs. In August, the…

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Revolving Credit Growth Reaccelerates in July

Consumer credit outstanding growth slowed to 2.5% in July, down from 3.4% in July (SAAR) according to the Federal Reserve’s latest G.19 Consumer Credit report. Revolving credit growth reaccelerated to 9.2% in July, potentially reflecting strong consumer sentiment and job security in a tight—albeit cooling—labor market. In contrast, nonrevolving consumer debt outstanding inched up just…

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Modest Job Gains in July

The past two months’ job gains indicate that the job market is cooling from its peak last year and is growing at a moderate pace. Total employment increased by 187,000 and the unemployment rate inched down to 3.5% in July. Wages grew at a 4.4% year-over-year growth rate, down 1.1 percentage points from a 5.4%…

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U.S. Adds 209,000 Jobs in June

Job gains slowed in June, but the labor market remained solid. Total payroll employment rose by 209,000 and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.6%. In June, wages grew at a 4.4% year-over-year growth rate, down 1.1 percentage points from a 5.5% gain in May 2022. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, following…

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