Eye On Housing
The bond market appears to be responding to cooling macroeconomic data, including labor market reporting, as long-term rates fall back. Among the risk factors that previously led to higher interest rates (more debt issuance, higher-for-longer monetary policy expectations, long-term fiscal deficit conditions, and strong current GDP growth data for the third quarter) was an ongoing, elevated count of open jobs… Read More ›
Job growth decelerated in October. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 150,000 and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.9% in October from 3.8%. The labor market is cooling. The Fed held interest rates steady for the second meeting in a row at the conclusion of its November meeting. This month’s employment data will be one of the key components… Read More ›
Financial conditions continue to be tight, as the 10-year Treasury rate stands near 4.8% this morning. Among the factors leading to higher rates (more debt issuance, higher-for-longer monetary policy expectations, long-term fiscal deficit conditions, and strong current GDP growth data for the third quarter) is an ongoing, elevated count of open jobs for the overall economy. In September, the number… Read More ›
Job growth remained solid in September as the Fed fights against inflation. In fact, the recent jobs data has been stronger than most economists expected and is a reminder that GDP growth for the third quarter will be very strong and inflation risks persist. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 336,000 and the unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in September…. Read More ›
Financial conditions continue to tighten, as the 10-year Treasury rate increased to above 4.75%. Among the factors leading to higher rates (more debt issuance, higher-for-longer monetary policy expectations, long-term fiscal deficit conditions, and strong current GDP growth forecasts) was a surprise jump in August for the total number of open, unfilled jobs. In August, the number of open jobs for… Read More ›
Consumer credit outstanding growth slowed to 2.5% in July, down from 3.4% in July (SAAR) according to the Federal Reserve’s latest G.19 Consumer Credit report. Revolving credit growth reaccelerated to 9.2% in July, potentially reflecting strong consumer sentiment and job security in a tight—albeit cooling—labor market. In contrast, nonrevolving consumer debt outstanding inched up just 0.2% over the month. Total… Read More ›
The recent employment data indicates that the labor market is cooling gradually due to rising interest rates. Total employment increased by 187,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% from 3.5%. Wage growth slowed. In August, wages grew at a 4.3% year-over-year growth rate, down 1.1 percentage points from a 5.4% gain in August 2022. The Bureau of Labor Statistics… Read More ›
The count of open, unfilled jobs for the overall economy continued to moved lower in July, falling to 8.8 million. While certain inflation readings have raised the likelihood of a September Federal Reserve interest rate increase, the JOLTS survey is another data point indicating an ongoing but gradual cooling of macro conditions due to elevated interest rates. The count of… Read More ›
The past two months’ job gains indicate that the job market is cooling from its peak last year and is growing at a moderate pace. Total employment increased by 187,000 and the unemployment rate inched down to 3.5% in July. Wages grew at a 4.4% year-over-year growth rate, down 1.1 percentage points from a 5.4% gain in July 2022. Total… Read More ›
Job gains slowed in June, but the labor market remained solid. Total payroll employment rose by 209,000 and the unemployment rate decreased to 3.6%. In June, wages grew at a 4.4% year-over-year growth rate, down 1.1 percentage points from a 5.5% gain in May 2022. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, following a gain of 306,000 in… Read More ›