Job growth remained solid in September as the Fed fights against inflation. In fact, the recent jobs data has been stronger than most economists expected and is a reminder that GDP growth for the third quarter will be very strong and inflation risks persist. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 336,000 and the unemployment rate…
Financial conditions continue to tighten, as the 10-year Treasury rate increased to above 4.75%. Among the factors leading to higher rates (more debt issuance, higher-for-longer monetary policy expectations, long-term fiscal deficit conditions, and strong current GDP growth forecasts) was a surprise jump in August for the total number of open, unfilled jobs. In August, the…
Consumer credit outstanding growth slowed to 2.5% in July, down from 3.4% in July (SAAR) according to the Federal Reserve’s latest G.19 Consumer Credit report. Revolving credit growth reaccelerated to 9.2% in July, potentially reflecting strong consumer sentiment and job security in a tight—albeit cooling—labor market. In contrast, nonrevolving consumer debt outstanding inched up just…
The recent employment data indicates that the labor market is cooling gradually due to rising interest rates. Total employment increased by 187,000 and the unemployment rate rose to 3.8% from 3.5%. Wage growth slowed. In August, wages grew at a 4.3% year-over-year growth rate, down 1.1 percentage points from a 5.4% gain in August 2022….
The count of open, unfilled jobs for the overall economy continued to moved lower in July, falling to 8.8 million. While certain inflation readings have raised the likelihood of a September Federal Reserve interest rate increase, the JOLTS survey is another data point indicating an ongoing but gradual cooling of macro conditions due to elevated…
The past two months’ job gains indicate that the job market is cooling from its peak last year and is growing at a moderate pace. Total employment increased by 187,000 and the unemployment rate inched down to 3.5% in July. Wages grew at a 4.4% year-over-year growth rate, down 1.1 percentage points from a 5.4%…
