National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

PCE Inflation Hits 3-Years High in May
PCE Inflation Hits 3-Years High in May
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As the Iran conflict pushed up energy prices, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—accelerated to a three-year high in May. While oil and gasoline ...
Affordability Concerns Push New Home Sales Lower in May
Affordability Concerns Push New Home Sales Lower in May
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Elevated mortgage rates, rising inflation and economic uncertainty kept many buyers out of the market in May as consumers and builders continue to deal with challenging affordability conditions. While monthly ...
Sawmill Output Slips as Capacity Continues to Decline
Sawmill Output Slips as Capacity Continues to Decline
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U.S. sawmill production fell in the first quarter, the second consecutive quarter of lower output according to the Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production report. Sawmill output has remained largely flat ...
State-Level Employment Situation: May 2026
State-Level Employment Situation: May 2026
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State labor market conditions remained mixed in May, with payrolls expanding in many states while job losses were concentrated in a smaller group of states and the District of Columbia ...
Structural Demand Outpacing Supply: Jobs-to-Permits Ratios Highlight Housing Gap
Structural Demand Outpacing Supply: Jobs-to-Permits Ratios Highlight Housing Gap
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Strong labor market growth continued to put pressure on the nation’s housing supply in 2024, as home building activity did not fully keep pace with demand driven by job gains. ...
Gains for Household Real Estate Assets
Gains for Household Real Estate Assets
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The market value of households’ real estate assets rose to a new high in the first quarter reaching $48.7 trillion, according to the most recent release of U.S. Federal Reserve ...
A Laconic Statement: Hawkish Hold and New Plans from the Fed
A Laconic Statement: Hawkish Hold and New Plans from the Fed
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With a new Fed Chair and plans for evolving operating strategies, the Federal Reserve maintained its target policy rate at the conclusion of the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ...
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Townhouse construction expanded 10% during 2024, outpacing the rest of the single-family home building market. According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, during the fourth quarter of 2024, single-family attached starts totaled 44,000. Over the last...

In a clear sign illustrating the housing affordability challenges facing Americans, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Cost of Housing Index (CHI) found that in the fourth quarter of 2024, a family earning the nation’s median income of $97,800 needed 38% of its...

Single-family built-for-rent construction posted year-over-year declines for the fourth quarter of 2024, as a higher cost of financing crowded out development activity. This slowdown is similar to the deceleration of multifamily construction in recent quarters. According to NAHB’s analysis of data from the Census Bureau’s...

Constrained housing affordability conditions due to ongoing, elevated interest rates led to a reduction in single-family production to start the new year. Overall housing starts decreased 9.8% in January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.37 million units, according to a report from the...

Builder sentiment fell sharply in February over concerns on tariffs, elevated mortgage rates and high housing costs. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 42 in February, down five points from January and the lowest level in five months, according to...

The share of self-employed in construction remains just under 23%, a new post-pandemic norm. While this is significantly higher than an economy-wide average of 10% of the employed labor force, for construction, these rates are historically low. Across the nation, construction self-employment rates range from...

Over 2024, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 981,834. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an increase of 8.0% over the 2023 level of 909,227. Year-to-date ending in December, single-family permits were up in all four regions. The range...

Borrowers and lenders agreed that credit for residential Land Acquisition, Development & Construction (AD&C) tightened further in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to NAHB’s survey on AD&C Financing and the Federal Reserve’s survey of senior loan officers. The net easing index derived from the...

Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were up 1.2% in January according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Producer Price Index measures prices that domestic producers receive for...

Confidence in the market for new multifamily housing reflected mixed results year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to results from the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) released today by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).  The MMS produces two separate indices.  While the Multifamily Production...

Inflation edged up to a six-month high in January and showed little progress from a year ago. The persistent inflation rate indicates the last mile to the Fed’s 2% target continues to be challenging and is consistent with the Fed’s cautious stance amid solid economic...

Lending standards for residential mortgages were essentially unchanged across most categories, while overall demand for most residential mortgages was weaker according to the Federal Reserve Board’s January 2025 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS).  Examining lending conditions for commercial real estate (CRE) loans, construction & development loans...

Total outstanding U.S. consumer credit stood at $5.15 trillion for the fourth quarter of 2024, increasing at an annualized rate of 4.22% (seasonally adjusted), according to the Federal Reserve’s G.19 Consumer Credit Report. This is an uptick from the third quarter of 2024’s rate of...

U.S. job growth slowed in January amid Southern California wildfires and severe winter weather across much of the country. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 4.0%. This month’s data indicates that the labor market is slowing at the start of 2025 but remains healthy....

The most significant challenge builders faced in 2024 was high interest rates, as reported by 91% of builders in the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index survey.  A smaller, albeit still significant share of 78% expect interest rates to remain a problem in 2025. The next...

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey, increased by 3.1% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis, primarily driven by purchasing activity. Compared to January last year, the index is higher by 3.4%....

The homeownership rate for those under the age of 35 dropped to 36.3% in the last quarter of 2024, reaching the lowest level since the third quarter of 2019, according to the Census’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS). Amidst elevated mortgage interest rates and tight housing...

After a period of slowing associated with declines for some elements of the residential construction industry, the count of open construction sector jobs remained lower than a year ago, per the December Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The number...

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