National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

U.S. Economy Expanded at a Slower Pace in the Second Quarter of 2026
U.S. Economy Expanded at a Slower Pace in the Second Quarter of 2026
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Real GDP growth slowed in the second quarter of 2026, as a pullback in government spending and slower growth in investment and exports, more than offset stronger consumer spending. Business ...
Construction Job Openings Rising
Construction Job Openings Rising
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The number of open positions in the construction sector increased in June, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level of open jobs ...
Residential Construction Spending Slips as Remodeling Activity Weakens
Residential Construction Spending Slips as Remodeling Activity Weakens
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Private residential construction spending declined 0.3% in June, while substantial downward revisions to improvement (remodeling) spending significantly altered the sector’s recent trajectory. According to the latest construction spending data from ...
Housing’s Share of GDP Moves Lower in the Second Quarter
Housing’s Share of GDP Moves Lower in the Second Quarter
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Housing’s share of the economy was 15.8% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the latest estimates of GDP produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This share is ...
PCE Inflation Eased in June
PCE Inflation Eased in June
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After reaching a three-year high last month, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge eased in June following declines in energy prices amid a temporary truce with Iran. This marked the ...
Top Ten Builder Share Across Largest Housing Markets
Top Ten Builder Share Across Largest Housing Markets
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An earlier post described how the top ten builders  in the country accounted for 43.6% of new single-family closings in 2025. BUILDER magazine has now released additional data on the ...
Amid Supply-Side Inflation Pressures, The Fed Holds
Amid Supply-Side Inflation Pressures, The Fed Holds
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The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate at a target range of 3.5% to 3.75% at the conclusion of its July policy meeting. There were three dissenting votes on ...
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Mortgage rates dropped significantly at the start of March before stabilizing, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage settling at 6.65%, according to Freddie Mac. This marks a 19-basis-point (bps) decline from February. Meanwhile, the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage fell by 20 bps to 5.83%. The drop...

Property tax revenue collected by state and local governments reached a new high in 2024 and continued to make up a bulk of tax revenue. Total tax revenue for state and local governments also reached a high after falling in 2023, driven by higher revenue...

Consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month amid growing concerns about the economic outlook and policy uncertainties, especially potential tariffs. Uncertainties continue to weigh on consumer sentiment as consumer confidence dropped to a 4-year low and expectations for the future economy fell to a...

A slight decline in mortgage rates and limited existing inventory helped new home sales to edge higher in February even as housing affordability challenges continue to act as a strong headwind on the market. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in February increased 1.8% to...

As housing affordability remains a critical challenge across the country, mortgage rates continue to play a central role in shaping homebuying power. Mortgage rates stayed elevated throughout 2023 and early 2024. Recent data, however, shows a modest decline in mortgage rates. Even slight declines can...

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), people who are neither working nor looking for work are counted as “not in the labor force”. Understanding the size and characteristics of individuals not in the labor force is crucial for a comprehensive assessment of...

Higher interest rates and tight financial lending conditions have led to a decline in loans for new home construction. The total volume of acquisition, development, and construction (AD&C) loans outstanding from FDIC-insured institutions fell 1.3% to $484.2 billion, the fourth straight quarterly decline. The level...

Existing home sales in February increased to the second highest level since March 2024, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This rebound suggests buyers are slowly entering the market as inventory improves and mortgage rates decline from recent high in January. Despite rates...

In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve remained on pause with respect to rate cuts at the conclusion of its March meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate in the 4.25% to 4.5% range. While the central bank acknowledged that the economy remains solid, it...

Sawmill and wood preservation firms reported lower capacity utilization rates coupled with level production and capacity throughout 2024. Despite no growth in production in 2024, utilization rates have trended downwards since 2017 as sawmills have expanded production capability. Even with more production capability, real output...

Limited existing inventory helped single-family starts to post a solid gain in February, but builders are still grappling with elevated construction costs stemming from tariff issues and persistent shortages related to buildable lots and labor. Overall housing starts increased 11.2% in February to a seasonally...

As the number of housing units under construction peaked in 2023, the industry set another record employing close to 11.4 million people, including self-employed workers. NAHB estimates that out of this total, 4.7 million people worked in residential construction, accounting for 2.9% of the U.S....

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 31 states in January compared to the previous month, while it decreased in 19 states and the District of Columbia. California reported no change during this time. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased...

Economic uncertainty, the threat of tariffs and elevated construction costs pushed builder sentiment down in March even as builders express hope that a better regulatory environment will lead to an improving business climate. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 39...

The market value of household real estate assets fell from $48.5 trillion to $48.1 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the most recent release of U.S. Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts. Household real estate assets value have fallen for two consecutive quarters...

Permits are off to a lower level to start the new year. Over the first month of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 73,115. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a decline of 3.7% over the January 2024...

Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—were up 0.5% in February according to the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The increase in January was revised downward to 1.1%. The Producer...

Inflation slowed to a 3-month low in February, with decreases in airfares and gasoline partially offsetting shelter increases. Despite the easing, the report does not capture upcoming tariff impacts. The inflationary pressure from tariffs and trade war would weigh on the economy and complicate the...

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