National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

Building Material Price Inflation Remains High Despite Energy Price Declines
Building Material Price Inflation Remains High Despite Energy Price Declines
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The Producer Price Index for final demand was up 0.3% in October, after rising 1.4% in September. Compared to a year ago, final demand prices were up 6.5%. The price ...
No Relief: Credit Conditions for Builders Still Tightening
No Relief: Credit Conditions for Builders Still Tightening
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Credit conditions on loans for residential Land Acquisition, Development & Construction (AD&C) were still tightening in the third quarter of 2026, according to NAHB’s quarterly survey on AD&C Financing. The ...
Existing Home Sales Fell to 16-Year Low
Existing Home Sales Fell to 16-Year Low
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After a brief rebound last month, existing home sales plummeted to a 16-year low in October. With mortgage rates back above 7% since mid-September and home prices still elevated, buyers ...
Significantly Weaker Demand for Residential Mortgages and CRE Loans in Third Quarter
Significantly Weaker Demand for Residential Mortgages and CRE Loans in Third Quarter
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Demand for all types of residential mortgages was significantly weaker, while lending standards for most were essentially unchanged in the third quarter of 2026, according to the recent release of ...
Household Debt Delinquencies Rise as Mortgage Performance Weakens
Household Debt Delinquencies Rise as Mortgage Performance Weakens
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Household debt delinquency rates increased in the third quarter of 2026 as the share of delinquent balances and the transition to seriously delinquent debt increased. According to the latest Quarterly ...
Consumer Credit Growth Picks Up in the Third Quarter of 2026 
Consumer Credit Growth Picks Up in the Third Quarter of 2026 
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Consumer credit growth accelerated in the third quarter of 2026, with both revolving and nonrevolving credit increasing at their fastest quarterly rates since 2022. Total outstanding consumer credit reached $5.22 ...
Inflation Persists in October
Inflation Persists in October
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Inflation remained elevated in October even as energy prices eased, raising expectations of another Fed rate hike. Shelter returned as the largest driver of headline inflation, accounting for over 30% ...
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The count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry held steady amid a slowdown for housing, per the May Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The number of open jobs for the overall economy increased slightly from 7.40 million...

Despite persistently high mortgage rates, elevated financing costs for builders, and a shortage of buildable lots, single-family starts rebounded in 2024, following two straight years of declines. According to the National Association of Home Builders’ analysis of the 2024 Survey of Construction (SOC), a total...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in ten states in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Thirty-nine states reported real GDP declines, while the District of Columbia and Delaware reported...

In the first quarter of 2025, state and local governments experienced an increase in property tax revenue growth. On a seasonally adjusted basis, state and local government property tax revenue grew 1.1% over the quarter, according to the Census Bureau’s quarterly summary of state and...

Average mortgage rates were flat in June, according to Freddie Mac. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage held at 6.82%, while the 15-year stayed at 5.95%. Compared to a year ago, the 30-year rate is down 10 basis points (bps), and the 15-year rate is 24...

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 37 states in May compared to the previous month, while it decreased in 10 states and the District of Columbia. The three remaining states, Alaska, Delaware, and New Jersey reported no change. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide...

Elevated interest rates and economic uncertainty sent more home buyers to the sidelines in May as housing affordability conditions remain challenging. Sales of newly built single-family homes declined 13.7% in May, falling back to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 according to newly released...

After a strong rebound in May, consumer confidence resumed its downward trend in June. Consumers remain concerned about the economy and labor market amid ongoing uncertainty, especially around tariffs. This month’s decline erased almost half of last month’s sharp gain, suggesting continued volatility in consumer...

Lumber cost uncertainty has risen from the start of the year, driven in part by potential higher tariffs, particularly on Canadian softwood lumber. Despite the continued use and threat of tariffs, U.S. sawmill and wood preservation firms have not increased production to a level that...

Existing home sales rose 0.8% in May but remained near historical lows, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Despite the modest increase, this marks the slowest pace for May since 2009. The sluggish sales suggest higher mortgage rates and elevated home prices continue...

Credit conditions for builders and developers eased in the first quarter of 2025 as the level of outstanding 1-4 family residential construction loans rose for the first time in two years, according to data released by FDIC. While the volume of 1-4 family residential construction...

Reflecting most forecasters’ expectations for the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve continued its post-2024 pause for federal funds rate cuts, retaining a target rate of 4.5% to 4.25%. The pause comes after a 100 basis point series of reductions in late 2024. Despite these...

A sharp decline in multifamily production pushed overall housing starts down in May, while single-family output was essentially flat due to economic and tariff uncertainty along with elevated interest rates. Overall housing starts decreased 9.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.26...

In a further sign of declining builder sentiment, the use of price incentives increased sharply in June as the housing market continues to soften. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in June, down two points from May, according to...

Housing permits continued a downhill trend for the fourth month in a row, pointing to a broader residential construction slowdown for 2025. Over the first four months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 320,259. On a year-over-year (YoY)...

The market value of household real estate assets fell from $48.1 trillion to $47.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, according to the most recent release of U.S. Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts. The value of household real estate assets declined for three consecutive...

Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—rose 0.2% in May, following a (revised) decrease of 0.2% in April. These figures are taken from the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The PPI...

Despite inflationary pressure from tariffs, inflation in May rose slightly but came in softer than expected. The Consumer Price Index increased from 2.3% in April to 2.4% in May year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report. While this report reflected consumer prices after...

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