National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

The Fed Cuts amid Partly Cloudy Conditions
The Fed Cuts amid Partly Cloudy Conditions
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With the government shutdown limiting the quantity of economic data available to markets and policymakers, the central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) enacted a widely anticipated 25 basis point ...
Home Price Growth Slows
Home Price Growth Slows
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Home prices in August grew at the lowest annual rate in over two years, according to the recent release of the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index (seasonally adjusted – ...
Two-Story Foyer Trend Stabilizes in 2024
Two-Story Foyer Trend Stabilizes in 2024
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In 2024, nearly a quarter of new homes were built with a two-story foyer, virtually unchanged from 2023, according to data obtained from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC) ...
Inflation Picks Up in September
Inflation Picks Up in September
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Inflation increased in September to the fastest pace since the start of the year, showing tariff pressure on prices continues to materialize gradually, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics ...
Existing Home Sales Increase in September
Existing Home Sales Increase in September
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Existing home sales rose to a seven-month high in September as mortgage rates eased and inventory improved, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Resale inventory matched to the ...
Where are Porches Most Common for Newly-Built Homes?
Where are Porches Most Common for Newly-Built Homes?
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Although the share of new homes with porches edged down in 2024, porches continue to rank as the most common outdoor feature on new homes, according to NAHB tabulation of ...
How COVID-19 Reshaped the U.S. Labor Market and Housing Demand
How COVID-19 Reshaped the U.S. Labor Market and Housing Demand
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Between February 2020 and June 2022, the U.S. labor market experienced the deepest downturn on record followed by the fastest recovery in at least a century. The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted ...
Median Age of Construction Labor Force Holds at 42 
Median Age of Construction Labor Force Holds at 42 
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The median age of construction labor force is 42, one year older than a typical worker in the national labor force, according to NAHB analysis of the most recent 2023 ...
Non-Conventional Financing for New Home Sales Loses Ground in 2024
Non-Conventional Financing for New Home Sales Loses Ground in 2024
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Nationwide, the share of non-conventional financing for new home sales accounted for 31% of the market per NAHB analysis of the 2024 Census Bureau Survey of Construction (SOC) data. This ...
Better Growth, Larger Deficits: CBO Fiscal Outlook
Better Growth, Larger Deficits: CBO Fiscal Outlook
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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) is a key nonpartisan score keeper that measures the effects of policy changes by the Federal Government. With several policy changes since January of this ...
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Mortgage rates that averaged 6.92% in June per Freddie Mac, along with elevated rates for construction and development loans, continue to put a damper on builder sentiment. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 42 in July, down one point from...

NAHB analysis of the Survey of Construction (SOC) shows that 72.4% of new single-family homes started in 2023 were built on slab foundations, 16.6% were built with full or partial basements, and 9.9% with crawl spaces. The share of new homes built on slabs has...

Inputs to residential construction, goods less food and energy, rose 0.19% in the month of June according to the most recent producer price index (PPI) report published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The index for inputs to residential construction, goods less food and...

Both overall and core inflation continued to slow in June, as a decline in gasoline prices offset the increase in shelter costs. This is another dovish signal for future monetary policy, following a significant downward revision to the job report. Despite a slowdown in the...

Lot values for single-family detached spec homes continued to rise, with national values reaching a new high in 2023, according to NAHB’s analysis of the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC) data. The U.S. median lot value for single family detached for-sale homes started in...

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume by the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) weekly survey, increased by 8.2% on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis from May to June. In comparison to June 2023, the index is up by 1.0%. The Purchase...

Close to two thirds (65%) of new single-family detached homes sold in 2023 were built on lots under 9,000 square feet, which is less than 1/5 of an acre. According to the latest Survey of Construction (SOC), this is the highest share on record and...

Reaching the highest level of multifamily completions since 1987, 450,000 multifamily units were completed in 2023, with 216,000 units completed in buildings with fewer than 50 units according to NAHB Analysis of the Census Bureau’s Characteristics of Units in New Multifamily Buildings Completed. This was...

There is a mismatch between the prices of homes being built, and the prices home buyers expect to pay, according to recent surveys from NAHB and the U.S. Census Bureau. While 38% of buyers expect to pay less than $250,000 for their next home (and...

The rising trend of two or more stories homes reversed in 2023, according to data obtained from the US Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC) and tabulated by NAHB.  The share of homes started with two or more stories decreased for the first time in...

Due to tightened monetary policy, the count of open construction sector jobs shifted lower in the early Spring but is now stabilizing, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). This shift lower is consistent with a somewhat cooler labor...

Private residential construction spending was down 0.2% in May after surging 0.9% in the prior month, according to the construction spending data by the U.S. Census Bureau. Nevertheless, spending remained 6.5% higher compared to a year ago. The monthly decline in total private construction spending...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 39 states and the District of Columbia in the first quarter of 2024 compared to the last quarter of 2023 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Ten states reported an economic contraction during this time,...

According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased by 14 basis points (bps) from 7.06% in the previous month to 6.92% in June 2024. This decline comes after increases from 6.64% in January to a peak above 7.2% in May. Nonetheless, the current...

The budget deficit in 2024 is expected to total $1.9 trillion, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent June estimates. This marks a $408 billion increase from the $1.5 trillion estimate published in February. This increase is the result of increased spending of $363...

Total (new and existing) home inventory is an important measure for gauging and forecasting home prices and home construction impacts. The intuition is clear: more inventory yields weaker or declining home price growth and home building activity. Lean inventory levels lead to price growth and...

New single-family starts have trended higher since 2012, reaching a post-pandemic peak of 1,133,145 units in 2021. During 2022 and 2023, elevated housing prices and persistently high mortgage rates have dampened housing market activity. According to NAHB analysis of the 2023 Survey of Construction (SOC),...

Consumer confidence weakened in June but remained within the range of the past two years, with optimism about current labor market conditions offsetting concerns about future economic outlook. However, higher interest rates and lingering inflation continue to discourage consumption. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by...

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