After a strong rebound in May, consumer confidence resumed its downward trend in June. Consumers remain concerned about the economy and labor market amid ongoing uncertainty, especially around tariffs. This month’s decline erased almost half of last month’s sharp gain, suggesting continued volatility in consumer...
Lumber cost uncertainty has risen from the start of the year, driven in part by potential higher tariffs, particularly on Canadian softwood lumber. Despite the continued use and threat of tariffs, U.S. sawmill and wood preservation firms have not increased production to a level that...
Existing home sales rose 0.8% in May but remained near historical lows, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Despite the modest increase, this marks the slowest pace for May since 2009. The sluggish sales suggest higher mortgage rates and elevated home prices continue...
Credit conditions for builders and developers eased in the first quarter of 2025 as the level of outstanding 1-4 family residential construction loans rose for the first time in two years, according to data released by FDIC. While the volume of 1-4 family residential construction...
Reflecting most forecasters’ expectations for the June FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve continued its post-2024 pause for federal funds rate cuts, retaining a target rate of 4.5% to 4.25%. The pause comes after a 100 basis point series of reductions in late 2024. Despite these...
A sharp decline in multifamily production pushed overall housing starts down in May, while single-family output was essentially flat due to economic and tariff uncertainty along with elevated interest rates. Overall housing starts decreased 9.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.26...
In a further sign of declining builder sentiment, the use of price incentives increased sharply in June as the housing market continues to soften. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes was 32 in June, down two points from May, according to...
Housing permits continued a downhill trend for the fourth month in a row, pointing to a broader residential construction slowdown for 2025. Over the first four months of 2025, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 320,259. On a year-over-year (YoY)...
The market value of household real estate assets fell from $48.1 trillion to $47.9 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, according to the most recent release of U.S. Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts. The value of household real estate assets declined for three consecutive...
Prices for inputs to new residential construction—excluding capital investment, labor, and imports—rose 0.2% in May, following a (revised) decrease of 0.2% in April. These figures are taken from the most recent Producer Price Index (PPI) report published by U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The PPI...
Despite inflationary pressure from tariffs, inflation in May rose slightly but came in softer than expected. The Consumer Price Index increased from 2.3% in April to 2.4% in May year-over-year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ report. While this report reflected consumer prices after...
House price growth slowed in the first quarter of 2025, partly due to a decline in demand and an increase in supply. Persistent high mortgage rates and increased inventory combined to ease upward pressure on house prices. These factors signaled a cooling market, following rapid...
The rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine learning and generative AI (GenAI), is reshaping industries, creating new economic opportunities, and raising critical questions about its long-term impact on jobs and economic growth. A recent study by Ping Wang and Tsz-Nga Wong, titled “Artificial...
Despite ongoing economic and policy uncertainty, the labor market remains resilient, though early signs of softening are beginning to emerge. Job growth moderated in May, and employment figures for March and April were notably revised downward. The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. In May, wage...
Wage growth in construction continued to decelerate in April on a national basis, but the differences across regional markets remain stark. Nationally, average hourly earnings (AHE) in construction increased 3.6% year-over-year and crossed the $39.3 mark when averaged across all payroll employees (non-seasonally adjusted, NSA)....
Mortgage loan applications declined in May, driven by a drop for refinancing activity. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly survey, the Market Composite Index, which measures mortgage application volume, fell 5.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. Despite the monthly dip, application...
Single-family construction growth slowed substantially across all markets in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Home Building Geography Index (HBGI). Multifamily construction growth remained negative in the largest markets but reported significant expansion in lower population density areas. The HBGI tracks single-family and...
The count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry held steady amid a slowdown for housing, per the April Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The number of open jobs for the overall economy increased slightly from 7.20 million...
