Eye on Housing

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released major changes to the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) program with the data for January. The objective was to realign the aggregate indexes with the contours of a dynamic economy, incorporating indexes for services, construction, government purchases, and exports into the broader aggregate indexes. (For more information see new PPI.) The results show a little less core inflation (excluding food and energy) at the producer level, but the same pattern of prices driven by swings in energy prices over the last few years.

Overall, inflation at the producer level maintained its modest pace, rising 0.2% in January from December, and 1.2% for the 12 month period ending in January.

The PPIs for individual building materials were unaffected by the changes to the aggregate indexes. Softwood lumber prices moved up modestly in January after softening at the end of 2013. OSB prices firmed slightly after steep declines from early 2013 peaks.

Gypsum prices jumped 7.4% in January from December, a significant down payment on the price increases some producers announced for the coming year. This increase brings gypsum prices to 99.5% of their housing boom peaks.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for December. Producer prices for finished goods rose 0.4% in December on the strength of energy prices which rose 1.6% in December from November. Energy prices have been the main driver of overall prices in 2013. In December increases in energy and core prices (excluding food and energy) were partially offset by declines in food prices.

Softwood lumber prices softened after increasing through the second half of 2013. OSB prices continued their descent, although at a slower pace than earlier in the year.

Gypsum prices edged up in December finishing the year about where they started. Average gypsum prices in 2013 were 16.6% above 2012 levels, which were 14.1% above 2011 levels.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for October. Producer prices for finished goods declined by 0.2% in October following a 0.1% decline in September. Increases in core prices (excluding food and energy) of 0.2% and food prices of 0.8% were offset by a 1.5% decline in energy prices, pushing the overall index down.

Wood products prices edged up as the monthly PPIs are beginning to reflect increases in weekly measures. Gypsum prices declined modestly from a recent May peak but the outlook is for higher prices in 2014 given announced planned increases for 2014 from National Gypsum.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for August. Producer prices for finished goods rose 0.3% in August driven by increases in food (0.6%) and energy (0.8%) prices. Excluding food and energy, the core index was flat.

The PPI for softwood lumber rose 2.6% from July to August after declining 2.3% from June to July. Strong demand from China helped the rebound. Offshore markets have gained favor as recent price declines have triggered the return of the export tax on Canadian shipments to the US.

OSB prices declined 9.5% in August, bringing them to their lowest level since the run-up that began in early 2012, but leaving them still 34.6% higher than that low point.

Gypsum prices declined slightly in July and August, a two month decline of 1.8%, but the prospect of price relief was short-lived. Prices are currently at 92.6% of their peak housing boom levels and at least one major producer, National Gypsum, has announced a 20% price hike effective with 2014 shipments. This price increase is eerily similar to the hikes in early 2012 and 2013.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for February. Energy prices, rising 3.0% based largely on gasoline prices, pushed the overall index up 0.7%. Food prices declined 0.5% while the core price index (i.e., excluding food and energy) was stable, rising 0.2% since last month.

While overall producer prices have been relatively stable, the prices for certain building materials have risen rapidly as the housing recovery has gained momentum since the beginning of 2012. Overall producer prices are up less than 3% while softwood lumber, OSB and gypsum prices are 30%, 80% and 26% higher than at the start of 2012.

The rising prices of these building materials represent a significant challenge for home builders as they find themselves squeezed between rising input prices and a housing market where prices are only recently recovering from their steep declines.