Eye On Housing
NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates custom home building expanded during the fourth quarter of 2019, supported by low mortgage interest rates. There were 44,000 total custom building starts during the fourth quarter of 2019. This marks a 16% gain over the final quarter of 2018 total of 38,000. Over the… Read More ›
In the fourth-quarter of 2019, builders and developers reported declining interest rates on all types of loans covered in NAHB’s quarterly survey on acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) financing (Exhibit 8). The average interest rate declined from 6.39 to 6.13 percent on loans for land acquisition, from 6.31 to 5.94 percent on loans for land development, from 5.99 to 5.63… Read More ›
According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, after a strong 2018, townhouse construction experienced weakness over the course of 2019. This recent market softness matches data in the NAHB HBGI, which revealed reduced construction activity for large metro suburban markets in 2019. These kind of higher density neighborhoods are often… Read More ›
Total housing starts posted a 3.6 percent decline in January (1.57 million units) compared to an upwardly revised December estimate of 1.63 million units according to the joint data release from the Census Bureau and HUD. Relative to January 2019 (during the housing soft patch), total starts are 21.4 percent above the annual pace of 1.29 million units. Single-family starts… Read More ›
Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes edged one point lower to 74 in February, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The last three monthly readings mark the highest sentiment levels since December 2017. Steady job growth, rising wages and low interest rates are fueling housing demand in a market… Read More ›
Cost and availability of labor topped the list of problems builders faced in 2019, and is expected to return to the number one spot in 2020, according to special questions on the December survey for the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The survey results showed that cost and availability of labor were a significant issue for 87% of builders last… Read More ›
In January, NAHB released its new Priced-Out Estimates for 2020. A previous post discussed the often-cited estimate that a $1,000 increase in the price of a median-priced new home will price 158,857 U.S. households out of the market for the home. A second post discussed the related estimate that a quarter point increase in the mortgage rate will price out… Read More ›
Year-over-year (YoY), total nonfarm employment increased by 2.1 million jobs on a seasonally adjusted basis (SA), or 1.4% from December 2018 to December 2019. During this time, total nonfarm employment in the Western region increased by 2.0%. The South, Northeast, and Midwest recorded gains at 1.8%, 0.9% and 0.5% respectively, during this time. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics,… Read More ›
Last Friday’s Eye on Housing blog post announced the release of NAHB’s “priced out” estimates for 2020, showing that—if the median new home price goes up by $1,000—it prices 158,857 U.S. households out of the market, in the sense that they would qualify for a standard mortgage to purchase the home before the price increase, but not afterward. The same… Read More ›
According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) expanded at an annual rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2019, the same increase as in the third quarter. This marks the 23rd consecutive quarter of growth. For the full year, real GDP increased 2.3% in 2019, down from a… Read More ›