NAHB recently released its 2026 Priced-Out Analysis, highlighting the housing affordability challenge. While previous posts discussed the impacts of rising home prices and interest rates on affordability, this post focuses on the related U.S. housing affordability pyramid. The pyramid reveals that 52% of households (70...
Housing’s share of the economy was 16.0% in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the latest estimates of GDP produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This share is down from 16.1% in the third quarter and is also lower than 16.3% as registered...
Reversing the post-pandemic rebound, the headship rates among young adults (the share of the population heading their own households) declined in 2024, according to NAHB’s analysis of the American Community Survey (ACS) data. Even so, the current rate of 43.7% marks a significant improvement from...
Housing affordability remains a critical challenge nationwide, and mortgage rates continue to play a central role in shaping homebuying power. Although rates have declined from the recent peak of about 7.6% in 2023 to around 6.01% as of February 19,2026, they remain elevated relative to...
New home sales ended 2025 on a mixed but resilient note, signaling steady underlying demand despite ongoing affordability and supply constraints. The latest data released today (and delayed because of the government shutdown in fall of 2025) indicate that while month-to-month activity shows a small...
Real GDP growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2025 as the historic government shutdown weighed on economic activity. While consumer spending continued to drive growth, federal government spending subtracted over a full percentage point from overall growth. According to the “advance” estimate released...
Delinquent consumer loans have steadily increased as pandemic distortions fade, returning broadly to pre-pandemic levels. According to the latest Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 4.8% of outstanding household debt was delinquent at the end of...
Despite a strong finish in December, single-family home building dipped in 2025 as persistent affordability challenges continued to weigh on the market. Total housing starts for 2025 were 1.36 million, down 0.6% from the 1.37 million total in 2024. Single-family starts in 2025 totaled 943,000,...
The NAHB 2026 priced-out estimates show that the housing affordability challenge is widespread across the country. In 39 states and the District of Columbia, over 65% of households are priced out of the median-priced new home market. This indicates a significant disconnect between higher new...
Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell one point to 36 in February, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Persistent affordability challenges, including high housing price-to-income ratios and elevated land and construction costs,...
Housing affordability remains a critical issue, with 65% of U.S. households unable to afford a median-priced new home in 2026. When mortgage rates are elevated, even a small increase in home prices can have a big impact on housing affordability. NAHB’s latest priced out analysis...
The cost of credit for residential construction and development declined in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to NAHB’s quarterly survey on Land Acquisition, Development & Construction (AD&C) Financing. In particular, the average contract rate declined on all four categories of loans tracked in the...
Inflation eased to an eight-month low in January, confirming a continued downward trend. Though most Consumer Price Index (CPI) components have resolved shutdown-related distortions from last fall, the shelter index will remain affected through April due to the imputation method used for housing costs. The...
Existing home sales fell in January to a more than two-year low after December’s strong rebound, as tight inventory continued to push home prices higher and winter storms weighed on activity. Despite mortgage rates trending lower and wage growth outpacing price gains, limited resale supply...
Wage growth for residential building workers moderated notably in 2025, reflecting a broader cooling in housing activity and construction labor demand. According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), both nominal and real wages remained modest during the fourth quarter,...
Even though garden/low-rise continues to be strong, overall confidence in the market for new multifamily housing decreased year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) released today by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). The MMS produces two separate indices....
The U.S. labor market began 2026 at a surprisingly strong pace, while newly released benchmark revisions show that job growth in 2025 was considerably weaker than previously reported. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs in January, and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. January’s...
Overall consumer credit continued to expand in the fourth quarter of 2025, with growth in both nonrevolving and revolving credit. Nonrevolving credit, primarily student and auto loans, accounts for 74% of total outstanding consumer credit, while revolving credit, largely credit card balances, makes up the...
