National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

Affordability Concerns Push New Home Sales Lower in May
Affordability Concerns Push New Home Sales Lower in May
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Elevated mortgage rates, rising inflation and economic uncertainty kept many buyers out of the market in May as consumers and builders continue to deal with challenging affordability conditions. While monthly ...
Sawmill Output Slips as Capacity Continues to Decline
Sawmill Output Slips as Capacity Continues to Decline
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U.S. sawmill production fell in the first quarter, the second consecutive quarter of lower output according to the Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production report. Sawmill output has remained largely flat ...
State-Level Employment Situation: May 2026
State-Level Employment Situation: May 2026
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State labor market conditions remained mixed in May, with payrolls expanding in many states while job losses were concentrated in a smaller group of states and the District of Columbia ...
Structural Demand Outpacing Supply: Jobs-to-Permits Ratios Highlight Housing Gap
Structural Demand Outpacing Supply: Jobs-to-Permits Ratios Highlight Housing Gap
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Strong labor market growth continued to put pressure on the nation’s housing supply in 2024, as home building activity did not fully keep pace with demand driven by job gains. ...
Gains for Household Real Estate Assets
Gains for Household Real Estate Assets
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The market value of households’ real estate assets rose to a new high in the first quarter reaching $48.7 trillion, according to the most recent release of U.S. Federal Reserve ...
A Laconic Statement: Hawkish Hold and New Plans from the Fed
A Laconic Statement: Hawkish Hold and New Plans from the Fed
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With a new Fed Chair and plans for evolving operating strategies, the Federal Reserve maintained its target policy rate at the conclusion of the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ...
Housing Starts Weaken in May as Multifamily Construction Slows
Housing Starts Weaken in May as Multifamily Construction Slows
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Housing starts fell sharply in May, driven by a steep drop in multifamily construction. Meanwhile, single-family buildings also slipped amid high interest rates, rising construction costs and ongoing labor shortages. ...
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Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 42 states and the District of Columbia in 2022 according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Six states recorded declines while Maryland and New Hampshire reported no change. The percent change in real GDP ranged from...

According to NAHB analysis of Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) data, large banks (assets greater than $10 billion) have increased their share of the residential construction loan market above pre-Great Recession levels in recent years. A 1-4 family residential construction loan is used for residential...

According to the 2021 American Community Survey (ACS), 23% (or close to 2.5 million) of workers employed in construction are self-employed. This is a whole percentage point higher than the share of self employed in construction in 2019, before the pandemic rattled the labor market....

NAHB analysis of the Census Bureau’s quarterly state and local tax data shows that $286 billion in taxes were paid by property owners in the fourth quarter of 2022 (not seasonally adjusted).[1] State and local governments collected $714 billion in property taxes in 2022, $46...

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 44 states and the District of Columbia in February compared to the previous month, while five states lost jobs. Oklahoma remained unchanged. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 311,000 in February, following...

Consumer confidence rose slightly following two months of declines thanks to the optimism in the short-term outlook. Even though confidence rose in March, consumers are planning to spend less on highly discretionary categories such as concerts and dining. As a result, consumers are planning to...

Based on the Census Bureaus’ latest estimates, the population of the State of Texas grew by 470,708 persons between 2021 and 2022. This nominal increase was the largest of any state. Texas joined California as the second state to have a total population above 30...

Higher mortgage rates and home prices, as well as increased construction costs contributed to lackluster new home sales in February, but signs point to improvement later in the year. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in February increased 1.1% to a 640,000 seasonally adjusted annual...

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee raised the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points but indicated that it was moving to a more data dependent mode as markets digest incoming risks for banks. The Fed is balancing two economic risks: ongoing elevated inflation...

A brief drop in mortgage rates and a pullback in home prices boosted existing home sales in February, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The 30-year mortgage rates averaged less than 6.3% in February per Freddie Mac and the median sales price in...

New NAHB 2023 Priced-Out Estimates show that 96.5 million households are not able to afford a median priced new home, and that additional 140,436 households would be priced out of the new home market if the price goes up by $1,000. This post presents details...

NAHB recently released its 2023 priced out estimates, showing how higher prices and interest rates affect housing affordability. The new estimates show that 96.5 million households are already not able to afford a median priced new home in 2023 due to the fact that their...

Single-family production remained at an anemic pace in February as builders continue to wrestle with elevated mortgage rates, high construction costs and tightening credit conditions that threaten to be exacerbated by recent turmoil in the banking system. Led by gains in apartment construction, overall housing...

After four consecutive declines, the producer price index (PPI) for inputs to residential construction less energy (i.e., building materials) rose 0.3% in February 2023 (not seasonally adjusted) follow a 1.1% increase in January (revised), according to the latest PPI report. Price growth of goods inputs...

Although high construction costs and elevated interest rates continue to hamper housing affordability, builders expressed cautious optimism in March as a lack of existing inventory is shifting demand to the new home market. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in March...

Consumer prices in February saw the smallest year-over-year gain since September 2021 with an eighth consecutive month of a deceleration. However, the shelter index (housing inflation) continued to rise at an accelerated pace and was the largest contributor to the total increase, accounting for over...

Over the first month of 2023, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 53,062. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is 36.4% below the January 2022 level of 83,404. Year-to-date ending in January, single-family permits declined in all four regions. The...

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia in January compared to the previous month, while Wyoming and Rhode Island lost jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 504,000 in January, following a...

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