National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

Lumber Capacity Lower Midway Through 2025
Lumber Capacity Lower Midway Through 2025
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Sawmill production has remained essentially flat over the past two years, according to the Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production report. This most recent data release contained an annual revision, which ...
Inflation Slows in November (with a Caveat)
Inflation Slows in November (with a Caveat)
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Inflation unexpectedly eased in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) latest report. This data release was originally scheduled for December 10 but was delayed due to the ...
Homelessness Increased to a Record-High in 2024 
Homelessness Increased to a Record-High in 2024 
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In 2024, the number of people experiencing homelessness increased to the highest estimate in the history of HUD’s Annual Point-in-Time (PIT) Count. Approximately 771,500 people were recorded as living in an emergency shelter, a transitional housing program, or in unsheltered ...
Job Market Shows Signs of Cooling in November
Job Market Shows Signs of Cooling in November
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In November, job growth slowed, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level in four years. At the same time, job gains for the previous two months (August ...
Builder Sentiment Inches Higher but Ends the Year in Negative Territory
Builder Sentiment Inches Higher but Ends the Year in Negative Territory
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Builder confidence inched higher to end the year but still remains well into negative territory as builders continue to grapple with rising construction costs, tariff and economic uncertainty, and many ...
Homeownership Rate Inches Up to 65.3% 
Homeownership Rate Inches Up to 65.3% 
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The latest homeownership rate rose to 65.3% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the Census’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS). Despite this quarterly increase, the trend continues to reflect ...
No Risk-Free Path: Fed Eases Monetary Policy
No Risk-Free Path: Fed Eases Monetary Policy
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The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut rates a third and final time in 2025, reducing the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points ...
Construction Labor Market Stable
Construction Labor Market Stable
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The count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry was relatively unchanged in October, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level ...
Mortgage Activity Continued to Climb in November
Mortgage Activity Continued to Climb in November
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Mortgage activity continued to climb in November, posting the largest year-over-year increase in more than five years. Every major category increased on a year-over-year basis as mortgage rates continue to trend lower, led by strong increases in refinancing and adjustable-rate mortgage activity.  The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market ...
Community Associations: A Growing Trend in 2024
Community Associations: A Growing Trend in 2024
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In 2024, 65.7% of all new single-family homes started were built within a community or homeowner’s association. This share increased from the 64.8% recorded in 2023, according to data tabulated ...
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The balance of consumer credit outstanding grew 7.1% in November 2022 (seasonal adjusted annual rate) after climbing 7.4% (SAAR) in October according to the Federal Reserve’s latest G.19 Consumer Credit report. Revolving debt—which consists primarily of credit card debt—increased at a 16.9% rate, more than...

Mortgage rates have increased rapidly in 2022, as the Federal Reserve continues to fight high inflation. The U.S. weekly 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from a slightly above 3% in early 2022 to more than 7% in late October and leveled off at a rate of...

Average hourly earnings for residential building workers* rose at a slower pace in November. After reaching the highest rate (8%) of 2021 in October, the pace of wage growth has retreated and remained below 4% for the past five consecutive months. The recent slowdown in...

Job growth slowed in recent months, but the overall labor market remains tight. In December, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 223,000, and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%, back to its lowest point before the pandemic. However, in a positive sign for inflation,...

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased in 47 states and the District of Columbia in the third quarter of 2022 while Indiana, South Dakota, and Mississippi saw modest GDP declines. According to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the percent change in real GDP...

The count of open, unfilled jobs for the overall economy declined slightly in November, falling from 10.51 million open positions to 10.46 million. This represents a decrease from a year ago (10.92 million), a sign the labor market is slowing in response to tighter monetary...

Private residential construction spending declined 0.5% in November, as spending on single-family construction plunged 2.9%. Private residential construction spending fell for the six consecutive month, standing at an annual pace of $868 billion. However, this total remains 5.3% higher compared to a year ago. The...

Consumer confidence rose to an eight-month high in December as declining gas prices and easing inflation contributed to more optimistic views of economy. However, spending plans were mixed. Vacation intentions improved, while the intention to buy homes and big-ticket appliances cooled further due to elevated...

With the end of 2022 approaching, NAHB’s Eye on Housing is reviewing the posts that attracted the most readers over the last year. In December, David Logan reported the most recent data on building material prices. These monthly building material updates were among the top...

With the end of 2022 approaching, NAHB’s Eye on Housing is reviewing the posts that attracted the most readers over the last year. In April of this year, the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI confirmed that the market had turned and was headed lower due to higher...

With the end of 2022 approaching, NAHB’s Eye on Housing is reviewing the posts that attracted the most readers over the last year. In April, Natalia Siniavskaia reported on wage data for the construction sector.   According to the latest May 2021 Bureau of Labor...

With the end of 2022 approaching, NAHB’s Eye on Housing is reviewing the posts that attracted the most readers over the last year. In May, Na Zhao reported on concerning the size of the second home housing stock.   According to NAHB estimates, the total...

With the end of 2022 approaching, NAHB’s Eye on Housing is reviewing the posts that attracted the most readers over the last year. In May, Litic Murali reported on population data in the post-covid environment.   The Census Bureau recently released its 2021 Metropolitan Statistical...

While new home sales received a slight bounce in November from moderating mortgage rates, the housing market continues to struggle because of ongoing supply chain disruptions, elevated construction costs, and challenging affordability conditions. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in November increased 5.8% to a...

The most recent Home Building Geography Index (HBGI) shows that multifamily home building has continued to experience strong growth since the start of the pandemic. Due to the low single-family housing inventory and elevated unaffordability of single-family housing caused by high house prices and higher...

In 2021, 9.1 percent of new single-family homes were built in an older neighborhood on a site where a previous structure had to be torn down and rebuilt, according to the latest Builder Practices Survey (BPS) conducted by Home Innovation Research Labs. Another 18.5 percent...

As rapid rising mortgage rates continue to weaken housing demand, the volume of existing home sales has declined for ten consecutive months as of November, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the longest run of declines since 1999. While mortgage rates...

Single-family housing starts continued to fall in November, with the pace of construction down 32% since February when mortgage rates began to rise. The housing market continues to weaken because stubbornly high construction costs and elevated interest rates are harming housing affordability. And with the...

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