A lack of existing inventory and solid demand for housing helped offset rising mortgage rates and push single-family production higher in July, even as builders continue to grapple with elevated construction and financing costs as well as a lack of skilled labor. Overall housing starts...
After steadily rising for seven consecutive months, builder confidence retreated in August as rising mortgage rates nearing 7% (per Freddie Mac) and stubbornly high shelter inflation have further eroded housing affordability and put a damper on consumer demand. Builder confidence in the market for newly...
Over the first six months of 2023, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 449,226. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is 20.9% below the June 2022 level of 567,798. Year-to-date ending in June, single-family permits declined in all four regions....
According to the latest Producer Price Index report, the price level of inputs to residential construction less energy (i.e., building materials) edged up 0.2% in July (not seasonally adjusted). Building materials price growth has slowed considerably in 2023 with an average monthly increase of 0.2%–down...
Rising home prices and interest rates coupled with elevated construction costs, low existing inventory and solid demand resulted in a significant decline in housing affordability during the second quarter of 2023. According to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI), 40.5% of new and existing...
Consumer prices showed a slight uptick in July, with core inflation remained sticky, ending a streak of 12 consecutive months of steady declines. Despite a slowdown compared to the previous month, the shelter index (housing inflation) continued to be the largest contributor to both headline...
Per the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) survey through the week ending August 4th, total mortgage activity decreased 3.1% from the previous week and the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rate rose 16 basis points to 7.09%. The FRM rate has fluctuated between 6.9% and 7.1%...
Consumer credit outstanding growth slowed to 4.0% in the second quarter 2023 (SAAR) according to the Federal Reserve’s latest G.19 Consumer Credit report, as revolving and nonrevolving debt grew at 7.1% and 3.0%, respectively. Revolving credit growth has decelerated as of late, a result of...
The average length of time to complete construction of a multifamily building, after obtaining authorization, was 19.8 months, according to the 2022 Survey of Construction (SOC) from the Census Bureau. The permit-to-completion time in 2022 was 2.3 months longer than in 2021, as supply-chain issues...
The past two months’ job gains indicate that the job market is cooling from its peak last year and is growing at a moderate pace. Total employment increased by 187,000 and the unemployment rate inched down to 3.5% in July. Wages grew at a 4.4%...
According to the Federal Reserve Board’s July 2023 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey (SLOOS)—conducted for bank lending activity over the second quarter of 2023—banks reported that lending standards tightened for all residential real estate (RRE) and commercial real estate (CRE) loan categories. Demand for RRE...
NAHB analysis of the most recent Quarterly Sales by Price and Financing report reveals that the share of new home sales backed by FHA loans climbed from 12.1% (revised) to 14.0% in the second quarter of 2023. It is the largest share since Q1 2021...
The Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey (CPS/HVS) reported the U.S. homeownership rate at 65.9% in the second quarter of 2023, amid persistently tight housing supply. The homeownership rate remained statistically unchanged from the first quarter reading (66%). Compared to the peak of 69.2% in 2004,...
An earlier post revealed that 69% of buyers who were actively engaged in the process of finding a home in the second quarter of 2023 have spent 3+ months searching for a home without success. The inability to find an affordable home remains the most...
NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that private residential construction spending rose 0.9% in June after an increase of 2.9% in May. Spending stood at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of $856.3 billion. However, total private residential construction spending is still 10.4%% lower...
The count of open, unfilled jobs for the overall economy continued to moved lower in June, falling to 9.6 million. While ongoing tight labor market conditions have raised the likelihood of a September Federal Reserve interest rate increase, the JOLTS survey is another data point...
Despite lower perceptions of affordability, the share of prospective home buyers who are actively engaged in the purchase process (i.e., have moved beyond the planning phase) remained essentially unchanged between the first and second quarters of 2023, at 56% and 55%, respectively. The lack of...
Housing’s share of the economy remained at 15.8% at the end of the second quarter of 2023. Overall GDP increased at a 2.4% annual rate, following a 2.0% increase in the first quarter of 2023 and 2.6% increase in the fourth quarter of 2022. Despite...
