New NAHB analysis of single-family permits shows which Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) have been trending in the same direction as U.S. single-family permits. Using single-family permits from 2012-2022, five-year and ten-year correlations are used to create an association index for each MSA that describes how...
Mortgage rates that hit more than a 20-year high, coupled with elevated construction costs and excessive regulatory costs, left housing affordability in the fourth quarter of 2023 virtually unchanged from the previous quarter and holding near its lowest level in more than a decade. According...
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released new 30-year population growth projections that include substantial upward revisions to the net immigration rates and slightly lower projected rates of mortality from COVID-19. As a result, the revised population estimates now include an additional 8.9 million people in...
Per the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) survey through the week ending February 2nd, total mortgage activity increased 3.7% from the previous week, and the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rate rose two basis points to 6.80%. The 30-year FRM has floated around 6.8% for much...
The latest CPS/HVS data shows that the overall homeownership rate was 65.7% in the last quarter of 2023. This was 3.5 percentage points lower from the peak of 69.4% in 2004. In this post, we focus on the homeownership rates by race and ethnicity over...
According to the data released by Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), private fixed investment in student dormitories inched up 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $3.96 billion in the last quarter of 2023, after a 5.5% increase in the third quarter. Private...
The U.S. economy entered the new year with a strong gain in payroll employment and an unchanged unemployment rate. Job gains in November and December were much stronger than initially estimated, according to revisions of the establishment survey data. January’s jobs report shows that the...
NAHB analysis of Census data shows that private residential construction spending rose 1.4% in December, marking three months of gains. It stood at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of $911.7 billion. The 2023 annual spending on private residential construction was $864.9 billion, 5.8% lower than...
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee held the federal funds rate constant at a top target of 5.5% at the conclusion of its January meeting. The Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as part of quantitative tightening...
The Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey (CPS/HVS) reported the U.S. homeownership rate declined to 65.7% in the last quarter of 2023, amid persistently tight housing supply and elevated mortgage interest rates. This is 0.3 percentage points lower from the third quarter reading (66%). Compared to...
Due to tightened monetary policy, the count of total job openings for the entire economy has trended lower in recent months. This is consistent with a cooling economy that is a positive sign for future inflation readings. However, the December data showed an uptick due...
NAHB analysis of the most recent Quarterly Sales by Price and Financing report reveals that the all-cash purchases accounted for 8.4% of new home sales in 2023—a 1.3 percentage point decline over the year but still the second-highest share since 1991. In contrast, the share...
Housing’s share of the economy rose to 16.0% at the end of the fourth quarter of 2023. Overall GDP increased at a 3.3% annual rate, following a 4.9% increase in the third quarter of 2023, and a 2.1% increase in the second quarter of 2023....
The U.S. economy grew at a surprisingly strong pace in the fourth quarter, mainly fueled by resilient consumer spending. However, the fourth quarter data from the GDP report suggests that inflation is cooling. The GDP price index rose 1.5% for the fourth quarter, down from...
Falling interest rates in the closing weeks of 2023 helped to bring buyers off the sidelines and provide a boost for new home sales. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in December increased 8.0% to a 664,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate from an upwardly revised...
According to the January 2024 survey for the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index, high interest rates were a significant issue for 90% of builders in 2023, and 77% expect them to be a problem in 2024. The second most widespread problem in 2023 was rising...
Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 39 states and the District of Columbia in December compared to the previous month, while 11 states saw a decrease. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, following a gain...
According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest estimates, the U.S. resident population grew by 1,643,484 to a total population of 334,914,895. The population growth rate reached its highest level since the pandemic at 0.49%. This is just above the 2019 growth rate (0.46%), while slightly...
