Eye On Housing
Expectations were high that the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would end with an announcement of a 25 basis point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. Those expectations were met, and at the press conference following the meeting, when asked why the third increase came so quickly, after the first two came… Read More ›
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, released three weeks after the meeting as standard practice, offer a glimpse behind the curtain, providing details of the deliberations, areas of agreement as well as ongoing debate, and specific articulations of viewpoints from unnamed meeting participants, going beyond the statement released immediately following the meeting. Minutes from the January… Read More ›
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy arm of the Federal Reserve System, concluded its two-day meeting and released a statement announcing no change in the target range for the federal funds rate. The current 50-75 basis point range was expected to be maintained following this first meeting since the December meeting, at which the target range for… Read More ›
Analysts scrutinize the statements released immediately following the meetings of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for hints about the likely direction of policy and implications for the economy. Like Kremlinologists, every adjective, choice of wording and change is examined. In the December statement only one sentence mattered: “In view of realized and… Read More ›
“Based on the relatively limited information received since the September FOMC meeting, participants generally agreed that the case for increasing the target range for the federal funds rate had continued to strengthen.” The minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reveal a broad consensus around the view that the labor market has improved substantially, growth… Read More ›
Analysts scrutinize the statements released immediately following the meetings of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for hints about the likely direction of policy. The statement released after the November meeting was largely a rerun of that following the September meeting. Very few of the words changed. A mild deceleration in household spending… Read More ›
Three dissents, all preferring an increase in the federal funds rate at the September meeting, focused on the same core argument: the current level of the unemployment rate signals a tight labor market that will persist for several years, push inflation closer to target and risks overshooting if monetary policy normalization is delayed too long. The overshooting could require a… Read More ›
The minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) confirm that the committee viewed the combination of an abrupt slowdown in payroll employment growth in May, and the uncertainty surrounding the implications of the UK referendum on leaving the European Union (“Brexit”) in late June, was too much risk to bear, and chose not to take… Read More ›
The statement released following the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sends a strong signal that the June jitters that upended the April willingness have passed; a September federal funds rate increase is back on the table. In the statement, the committee upgraded their assessment of the economy since June. Economic activity was upgraded to “expanding at… Read More ›
The intermeeting period between April and June was a roller coaster ride with expectations for the path of monetary policy rising steadily before plunging, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pulling back from its previous strong signals for a rate increase in June. The minutes from the June FOMC meeting reveal that deliberations focused on a surprisingly weak labor… Read More ›