National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

Townhouse Construction Share Gains Continue
Townhouse Construction Share Gains Continue
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Townhouse construction gained single-family construction market share during the third quarter of 2025. According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, during ...
Job Growth Slowed as 2025 Ended
Job Growth Slowed as 2025 Ended
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Job growth continued to slow at the end of the year, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate ...
Residential Construction Softens Amid Ongoing Housing Market Headwinds
Residential Construction Softens Amid Ongoing Housing Market Headwinds
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The latest residential housing market report, delayed by the federal government shutdown last fall, indicates that builders have faced significant headwinds in recent months. Elevated mortgage rates earlier in the ...
Gains for Student Housing Construction in the Third Quarter of 2025 
Gains for Student Housing Construction in the Third Quarter of 2025 
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Private fixed investment for student dormitories was up 3.8% in the third quarter of 2025, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $3.9 billion. This gain followed three consecutive ...
Consumer Confidence Dropped to Lowest since Tariffs Introduced
Consumer Confidence Dropped to Lowest since Tariffs Introduced
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Consumer confidence in December fell to the lowest level since April’s tariff implementation, reflective of growing concerns about reignited inflation and a weakening labor market affecting personal finances. The labor ...
State-Level Employment Situation: November 2025
State-Level Employment Situation: November 2025
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In November 2025, employment levels were largely unchanged across all states, with year-over-year growth holding near 2%. In contrast, construction employment showed greater variation, with some states experiencing declines of ...
Construction Job Openings Increased in November
Construction Job Openings Increased in November
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The count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry increased in November, per the delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level of ...
Mortgage Rates End 2025 at the Lowest Level of the Year
Mortgage Rates End 2025 at the Lowest Level of the Year
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Long-term mortgage rates have been declining since mid- 2025 and ended the year at their lowest level since September 2024. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% ...
Housing Share of GDP: Third Quarter 2025
Housing Share of GDP: Third Quarter 2025
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Housing’s share of the economy was 16.1% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the latest estimates of GDP produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This share is ...
Strong Economic Growth for Third Quarter
Strong Economic Growth for Third Quarter
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A belated GDP report shows that the U.S. economy expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter–July through September–before signs of cooling appeared in the labor market and consumer ...
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The Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey (CPS/HVS) reported the U.S. homeownership rate at 65.9% in the second quarter of 2023, amid persistently tight housing supply. The homeownership rate remained statistically unchanged from the first quarter reading (66%). Compared to the peak of 69.2% in 2004,...

An earlier post revealed that 69% of buyers who were actively engaged in the process of finding a home in the second quarter of 2023 have spent 3+ months searching for a home without success. The inability to find an affordable home remains the most...

NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that private residential construction spending rose 0.9% in June after an increase of 2.9% in May. Spending stood at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of $856.3 billion. However, total private residential construction spending is still 10.4%% lower...

The count of open, unfilled jobs for the overall economy continued to moved lower in June, falling to 9.6 million. While ongoing tight labor market conditions have raised the likelihood of a September Federal Reserve interest rate increase, the JOLTS survey is another data point...

Despite lower perceptions of affordability, the share of prospective home buyers who are actively engaged in the purchase process (i.e., have moved beyond the planning phase) remained essentially unchanged between the first and second quarters of 2023, at 56% and 55%, respectively. The lack of...

Housing’s share of the economy remained at 15.8% at the end of the second quarter of 2023. Overall GDP increased at a 2.4% annual rate, following a 2.0% increase in the first quarter of 2023 and 2.6% increase in the fourth quarter of 2022. Despite...

The most recent data release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that personal income increased 0.3% in June. The pace of personal income growth slowed after reaching a 0.7% monthly gain in January 2023. Gains in personal income are largely driven by increases...

After a reprieve in the first quarter of 2023, buyers’ outlook for housing affordability turned bleaker again in the second quarter. According to the latest Housing Trends Report, 76% of buyers are able to afford less than half the homes for-sale in their markets, up...

The U.S. economy grew at a solid pace in the second quarter of 2023, fueled by consumer and government spending. The second quarter data from the GDP report suggests that inflation is cooling. The GDP price index rose 2.2% for the second quarter, down from...

Increased levels of new home construction and sales are leading some buyers to expect the home search to get easier in the months ahead. According to the latest Housing Trends Report for the second quarter of 2023, 29% of prospective buyers are anticipating housing availability...

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee increased the federal funds rate to a top target of 5.5% at the conclusion of its July meeting. The Fed will also continue to reduce its balance sheet holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as part of quantitative tightening....

Rising mortgage rates and elevated construction costs put a damper on new home sales last month. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau estimated sales of newly built, single-family homes in June at a 697,000 seasonally adjusted annual pace,...

Higher interest rates have led millions of existing homeowners with mortgages under 4% to postpone plans to list their homes for sale, and for many prospective buyers, that supply vacuum has left newly built homes as the only game in town. That is the backdrop...

Mortgage rates’ slow –but steady– march upwards combined with the return of home price gains are doing what they are predicted to: slow housing demand. According to the latest Housing Trends Report, the share of adults with plans to purchase a home within a year...

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 38 states and the District of Columbia in June compared to the previous month, while 12 states lost jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 209,000 in June, following a gain of...

Existing home sales in June fell to the lowest level since January as limited inventory and fluctuating mortgage rates continued to weight on homebuyers, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Low resale inventory and strong demand pushed existing home prices to the highest...

Single-family production fell back after four straight monthly gains as elevated construction costs and rising mortgage rates led to a reduction in home building activity and affordability conditions worsened for home buyers. Overall housing in June decreased 8% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of...

Low existing inventory that is keeping demand solid for new homes helped to push builder confidence up in July even as the industry continues to grapple with rising mortgage rates, elevated construction costs and limited lot availability. Builder confidence in the market for newly built...

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