National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

Inflation Steady Before War
Inflation Steady Before War
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After months of downward trend, inflation held steady at an eight-month low in February. This report does not reflect the recent surge in oil prices due to Iran conflict beginning ...
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note
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Single-family permitting softened over the course of 2025 and finished the year weaker than the prior year. After showing some resilience in 2024, permitting activity gradually lost momentum as elevated ...
Existing Home Sales Rose in February
Existing Home Sales Rose in February
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Following the sharp decline last month, existing home sales bounced back in February as housing affordability improved. Lower mortgage rates and moderating home price growth helped pull buyers back to ...
AD&C Loan Volume Falls Despite Declining Financing Costs
AD&C Loan Volume Falls Despite Declining Financing Costs
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Single-family construction lending fell in the fourth quarter, according to data released by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC). The decline in the outstanding volume of acquisition, development and construction ...
Lower Mortgage Rates Boost Refinancing While Purchase Activity Slows
Lower Mortgage Rates Boost Refinancing While Purchase Activity Slows
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Mortgage application activity increased month-over-month as the 30-year fixed mortgage rates reached a three-year low. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, ...
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
U.S. Economy Loses 92,000 Jobs in February
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The U.S. labor market weakened in February, as payroll employment declined and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%. The cooling labor market could place the Federal Reserve in a challenging ...
Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
Builders Identify Key Long-Term Forces Shaping Housing Demand and Industry Health
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Home builders are keenly aware of the complex long-term outlook ahead for the home building industry. A recent NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI survey asked builders to assess the impact of 14 ...
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
Affordability Posts Mild Gains in Second Half of 2025 but Crisis Continues
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Though new and existing homes remain largely unaffordable, the needle moved slightly in the right direction in the second half of 2025, according to the latest data from the National ...
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
Mortgage Rates Dipped Below 6% in February Amid Treasury Rally
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Mortgage rates continued to decline in February, dipping below 6% in the last week of February. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.05% last month, 5 basis ...
House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Fourth Quarter 2025
House Price Appreciation by State and Metro Area: Fourth Quarter 2025
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U.S. house prices continued to rise at the close of 2025, though the pace of growth has slowed compared with the rapid gains of previous years. Elevated mortgage rates, affordability ...
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The share of homes with patios edged up to another record high last year. Of the roughly one million single-family homes started in 2022, 63.3% percent came with patios—up from 63.0% in 2021, and the seventh consecutive year of setting a new record. The source...

NAHB Analysis of the Census Bureau’s Characteristics of Units in New Multifamily Buildings Completed finds that 93% of the 368,000 multifamily units completed in 2022 were built-for-rent while the remaining 7% were built-for-sale. The share of new multifamily units that are built-for-sale has remained below...

Financial conditions continue to tighten, as the 10-year Treasury rate increased to above 4.75%. Among the factors leading to higher rates (more debt issuance, higher-for-longer monetary policy expectations, long-term fiscal deficit conditions, and strong current GDP growth forecasts) was a surprise jump in August for...

NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that private residential construction spending rose 0.6% in August. It is the fourth consecutive increase since May 2023, standing at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of $879.9 billion. However, total private residential construction spending is still 3.1%...

NAHB analysis of the Census Bureau’s quarterly state and local tax data shows that $132 billion in taxes were paid by property owners in the second quarter of 2023 (not seasonally adjusted).[1] In the four quarters ending Q2 2023, state and local governments collected $727...

According to the annual data from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC), a total of 29,000 5,000+ square-foot homes were started in 2022, down from 33,000 in 2021. In the boom year of 2006, the number of new 5,000+ square foot homes reached a...

Lot values for single-family detached spec homes continued to rise in 2022, with the national value and six out of nine Census divisions setting new nominal records, according to NAHB’s analysis of the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC) data. The U.S. median lot value...

Consumer confidence saw another decline in September as consumers expressed growing concerns about the future, primarily driven by persistent inflation and expectations of higher interest rates lasting for an extended period. The Consumer Confidence Index, reported by the Conference Board, fell 5.7 points from 108.7...

Elevated mortgage rates and challenging affordability conditions pushed new home sales down to their weakest rate since March. Sales weakened in August with average mortgage rates above 7%. While some builders were able to offset that effect via mortgage rate buydowns, rates moved higher this...

Of the roughly 1,005,000 single-family and 547,000 multifamily homes started in 2022, 59,000 (28,000 single-family and 31,000 multifamily) were built in age-restricted communities, according to NAHB tabulation of data from the Survey of Construction (SOC, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau and partially funded by...

Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 33 states and the District of Columbia in August compared to the previous month, while 17 states lost jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 187,000 in August, following a gain of...

The total market share of non-site built single-family homes (modular and panelized) was just 2% of single-family homes in 2022, according to completion data from the Census Bureau Survey of Construction data and NAHB analysis. This share has been steadily declining since the early-2000s despite...

Existing home sales in August remained at the lowest level since January as limited inventory and higher mortgage rates continued to weigh on homebuyers, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Low resale inventory and strong demand continued to drive up existing home prices,...

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee held the federal funds rate at a top target rate of 5.5% at the conclusion of its September meeting. The Fed will also continue to reduce its balance sheet holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as part of quantitative...

Higher mortgage rates averaging above 7% put a damper on single-family production in August, as builders also continue to face supply-side challenges in the form of elevated construction costs, a lack of skilled labor and a shortage of buildable lots. Led by a sharp decline...

Persistently high mortgage rates above 7% continue to erode builder confidence, as sentiment levels have dropped below the key break-even measure of 50 for the first time in five months. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in September fell five points...

Over the first seven months of 2023, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 527,158. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is 18.4% below the July 2022 level of 645,877. Year-to-date ending in July, single-family permits declined in all four regions....

According to the latest Producer Price Index report, the price level of inputs to residential construction less energy (i.e., building materials) ticked up 0.1% in August (not seasonally adjusted). Prices have also increased 0.2% over the past 12 months as year-over-year price growth has slowed...

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