National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

The Size of the Housing Shortage: 2024 Data
The Size of the Housing Shortage: 2024 Data
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Persistently low homeowner and rental vacancy rates indicate that the U.S. housing market remains structurally undersupplied. Comparing 2024 abnormally low vacancy rates with long-run equilibrium levels across U.S. metropolitan markets, ...
Job Openings Fall as Labor Market Weakens
Job Openings Fall as Labor Market Weakens
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Running counter to the data for the full economy, the count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry increased in December, per the delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings ...
Builders’ Top Challenges for 2026
Builders’ Top Challenges for 2026
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The most significant challenge builders faced in 2025 was high interest rates, as reported by 84% of builders in the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index survey.  A smaller, albeit still ...
Mortgage Rates Declined Despite Higher Treasury Yields
Mortgage Rates Declined Despite Higher Treasury Yields
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Long-term mortgage rates continued to decline in January. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.10% last month, 9 basis points (bps) lower than December. Meanwhile, the 15-year ...
Homeownership Rate Inches Up to 65.7%
Homeownership Rate Inches Up to 65.7%
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The latest homeownership rate rose to 65.7% in the last quarter of 2025, according to the Census’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS). While this was a modest quarterly increase, the broader ...
U.S. Population Growth Slows in 2025
U.S. Population Growth Slows in 2025
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According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest estimates, the U.S. resident population grew by 1,781,060 to a total population of 341,784,857. The population grew at a rate of 0.5%, a ...
Bathroom Remodeling Is Most Common Project in 2025
Bathroom Remodeling Is Most Common Project in 2025
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Every quarter, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) conducts a survey of professional remodelers. The first part of the survey collects the information required to produce the NAHB/Westlake Royal ...
Saving Rate Falls to 3.5% in November
Saving Rate Falls to 3.5% in November
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Personal income rose 0.3% in November 2025, following a 0.1% increase in October, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gains were largely driven by higher ...
Holding Pattern for the Fed
Holding Pattern for the Fed
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The Fed paused its easing cycle at the conclusion of the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank’s monetary policy body. The Fed held the short-term ...
State-Level Employment Situation: December 2025
State-Level Employment Situation: December 2025
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With few exceptions, year-over-year nonfarm employment levels were relatively stable across states at the end of 2025, ranging from a decline of 4.2 percent to a gain of 1.8 percent. ...
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The missing middle construction sector includes development of medium-density housing, such as townhouses, duplexes and other small multifamily properties. The multifamily segment of the missing middle (apartments in 2- to 4-unit properties) has generally disappointed since the Great Recession. For the third quarter of 2025, there were...

Mortgage application activity declined in December despite a modest easing in mortgage rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, fell 5.3% from November on a seasonally adjusted basis, though it remained 47.1% higher than a year...

Builder confidence moved lower to start the year as affordability concerns continue to weigh heavily with buyers, and builders continue to contend with rising construction costs. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell two points to 37 in January, according to...

In the fourth quarter of 2025, the NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 64, increasing four points compared to the previous quarter. Most remodelers are finding reasonably strong market conditions, even with the normal seasonal slowdown during the holidays.  The major...

Existing home sales rose in December to the fastest pace in nearly three years, but annual sales for 2025 remained at a 30-year low as elevated home prices and mortgage rates kept buyers on the sidelines, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). While...

Residential building material prices continued to experience elevated growth, according to the latest Producer Price Index release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Price growth has been above 3.0% since June this year, despite continued weakness in the new residential construction market. Across building materials,...

The new home sector has played an increasingly important role in meeting housing demand as resale inventory remains constrained in many regions. The latest data released today (and delayed because of the government shutdown in fall of 2025) indicate that new single-family home sales continue...

Inflation held steady in December, matching November’s reading, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) latest report. This December report was the first report to include a month-to-month figure since the government shutdown. However, the report should be read with caution as data distortions...

The market value of household real estate assets fell to $48.0 trillion in the third quarter of 2025, according to the most recent release of U.S. Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts. The third quarter value is 0.7% lower than the second quarter but is 1.5%...

NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates year-over year growth for custom home builders amid broader single-family home building weakness. The custom building market is less sensitive to the interest rate cycle than other forms of home...

Townhouse construction gained single-family construction market share during the third quarter of 2025. According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, during the third quarter of 2025, single-family attached starts totaled 46,000. Over the last...

Job growth continued to slow at the end of the year, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 50,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.4%. With only 584,000 jobs added over the course of the...

The latest residential housing market report, delayed by the federal government shutdown last fall, indicates that builders have faced significant headwinds in recent months. Elevated mortgage rates earlier in the year have restrained buyer demand and weighed on home building activity, alongside persistently high construction...

Private fixed investment for student dormitories was up 3.8% in the third quarter of 2025, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $3.9 billion. This gain followed three consecutive quarterly declines, as elevated interest rates continued to weigh on student housing construction. Despite the...

Consumer confidence in December fell to the lowest level since April’s tariff implementation, reflective of growing concerns about reignited inflation and a weakening labor market affecting personal finances. The labor market differential, which measures the gap between consumers viewing job as plentiful and hard-to-get, continued...

In November 2025, employment levels were largely unchanged across all states, with year-over-year growth holding near 2%. In contrast, construction employment showed greater variation, with some states experiencing declines of up to 7.5% while others posted gains approaching 10%. The recent federal government shutdown provides...

The count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry increased in November, per the delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level of open jobs is down measurably from two years ago due to declines in construction...

Long-term mortgage rates have been declining since mid- 2025 and ended the year at their lowest level since September 2024. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.19% in December, 5 basis points (bps) lower than November. Meanwhile, the 15-year rate declined 3...

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