Eye On Housing
Author Archives
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Measured Hawkishness: The Fed Hikes in July
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee increased the federal funds rate to a top target of 5.5% at the conclusion of its July meeting. The Fed will also continue to reduce its balance sheet holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as part of quantitative tightening. These actions are intended to slow the economy and bring inflation back to 2%. After… Read More ›
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Builder Confidence Edges Higher Despite Rising Rate Concerns
Low existing inventory that is keeping demand solid for new homes helped to push builder confidence up in July even as the industry continues to grapple with rising mortgage rates, elevated construction costs and limited lot availability. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in July posted a one-point gain to 56, according to the National Association… Read More ›
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Construction Job Openings Rise, But Long-Run Trend is Declining
The count of open, unfilled jobs for the overall economy moved lower in May, falling to 9.8 million. While ongoing tight labor market conditions have likely confirmed one to two more Fed rate hikes through the start of the Fall, the JOLTS survey is another data point indicating an ongoing but gradual cooling of macro conditions. The count of open… Read More ›
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New Home Sales Jump in May
A lack of existing inventory coupled with solid consumer demand helped to boost new home sales in May to their highest level since February 2022. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in May increased 12.2% to a 763,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census… Read More ›
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Single-Family Starts Post Solid Gain in May
Limited existing inventory combined with solid demand and improving supply chains helped push single-family starts to an 11-month high in May. This occurred despite elevated interest rates and ongoing challenges for housing affordability. Overall housing starts in May increased 21.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.63 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing… Read More ›
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Builder Confidence Moves into Positive Territory in June
Solid demand, a lack of existing inventory and improving supply chain efficiency helped shift builder confidence into positive territory for the first time in 11 months. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in June rose five points to 55, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This marks the… Read More ›
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A Hawkish Pause: Landing Flare for the Fed?
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee maintained the federal funds rate at a top target rate of 5.25% at the conclusion of its June meeting. The Fed will also continue to reduce its balance sheet holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Despite the June pause, the Fed’s projections indicated perhaps two more rate hikes are in store in the coming… Read More ›
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Slower Growth for AD&C Loans
Despite some negative reporting about private builder access to acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) financing, the volume of total outstanding loans posted a gain during the first quarter of 2023, albeit at the slowest growth rate since the end of 2020. Nonetheless, interest rates for these loans have increased as the Fed has raised the federal funds rate. The volume… Read More ›
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Despite Headwinds, Job Openings Rise
The count of open, unfilled jobs for the overall economy moved higher in April, rising to 10.1 million and complicating the June Federal Reserve decision. The higher job opening count for April increases the chance of another rate hike despite some speculation that May was the end of tightening. The count of open jobs was 11.8 million a year ago… Read More ›
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Multifamily Missing Middle Flat at Start of 2023
The missing middle construction sector includes development of medium-density housing, such as townhouses, duplexes and other small multifamily properties. The multifamily segment of the missing middle (apartments in 2- to 4-unit properties) has disappointed since the Great Recession. For the first quarter of 2023, there were just 4,000 2- to 4-unit housing unit construction starts. This is flat from a year prior…. Read More ›