Eye On Housing
Author Archives
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Builder Sentiment Down Again, but Better Building Conditions are in View
High mortgage rates that approached 8% earlier this month continue to hammer builder confidence, but recent economic data suggest housing conditions may improve in the coming months. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in November fell six points to 34 in November, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)…. Read More ›
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Fed Pauses Again: Housing in Focus
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee held the federal funds rate at a top target rate of 5.5% at the conclusion of its November meeting. While noting that the Fed was “strongly” committed to reducing inflation to its target rate, this marked the second meeting in a row of no increase as the central bank examines incoming data. The Fed’s… Read More ›
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Count of Open Construction Jobs Increases
Financial conditions continue to be tight, as the 10-year Treasury rate stands near 4.8% this morning. Among the factors leading to higher rates (more debt issuance, higher-for-longer monetary policy expectations, long-term fiscal deficit conditions, and strong current GDP growth data for the third quarter) is an ongoing, elevated count of open jobs for the overall economy. In September, the number… Read More ›
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Single-Family Starts Post Unexpected Gain in September as High Interest Rates Persist
Despite elevated mortgage rates averaging above 7%, single-family starts posted a solid gain in September as more buyers are turning to new homes because of a dearth of inventory in the resale market. Overall housing starts increased 7% in September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.36 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing… Read More ›
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Mortgage Rates Well Above 7% Continue to Hammer Builder Confidence
Stubbornly high mortgage rates that have climbed to a 23-year high and have remained above 7% for the past two months continue to take a heavy toll on builder confidence, as sentiment levels have dropped to the lowest point since January 2023. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in October fell four points to 40 from… Read More ›
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Growing Job Openings Leading to Higher Interest Rates
Financial conditions continue to tighten, as the 10-year Treasury rate increased to above 4.75%. Among the factors leading to higher rates (more debt issuance, higher-for-longer monetary policy expectations, long-term fiscal deficit conditions, and strong current GDP growth forecasts) was a surprise jump in August for the total number of open, unfilled jobs. In August, the number of open jobs for… Read More ›
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New Home Sales Weaken in August on Higher Mortgage Rates
Elevated mortgage rates and challenging affordability conditions pushed new home sales down to their weakest rate since March. Sales weakened in August with average mortgage rates above 7%. While some builders were able to offset that effect via mortgage rate buydowns, rates moved higher this month, suggesting the pace of new home sales will weaken further for September. Sales of… Read More ›
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One More Fed Rate Hike in 2023?
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee held the federal funds rate at a top target rate of 5.5% at the conclusion of its September meeting. The Fed will also continue to reduce its balance sheet holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as part of quantitative tightening. These actions are intended to slow the economy and bring inflation back to 2%…. Read More ›
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High Mortgage Rates Continue to Weaken Builder Confidence
Persistently high mortgage rates above 7% continue to erode builder confidence, as sentiment levels have dropped below the key break-even measure of 50 for the first time in five months. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in September fell five points to 45, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index… Read More ›
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Decline for AD&C Loan Volume in the Second Quarter
The volume of total outstanding acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) loans posted a decline during the second quarter of 2023 as interest rates continue to rise and financial conditions tighten. The volume of 1-4 unit residential construction loans made by FDIC-insured institutions declined by 2.8% during the second quarter. The volume of loans declined by $2.9 billion for the quarter…. Read More ›