Eye On Housing
Author Archives
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An End to Large Rate Hikes from the Fed?
Continuing its tightening of financial conditions to bring the rate of inflation lower, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee raised the federal funds target rate by 75 basis points, increasing that target to an upper bound of 4%. This marks the fourth consecutive meeting with an increase of 75 basis points and pushes the fed funds rate to a 15-year… Read More ›
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Construction Job Market Volatility
The count of open, unfilled jobs for the overall economy increased in September, rising from 10.3 million open positions to 10.71 million. This represents a small increase from a year ago (10.67 million). This increase occurs despite signs of a slowing economy amidst aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Fed. The hotter than expected labor market data pushed the 10-year… Read More ›
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New Home Sales Fall Back in September
Rising mortgage rates approaching 7% along with declining builder sentiment stemming from stubbornly high construction costs and weakening consumer demand pushed new-home sales down at a double-digit rate in September. Following a brief uptick in August, sales of newly built, single-family homes in September fell 10.9% to a 603,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to newly released data by the… Read More ›
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Single-Family Production Continues to Weaken in September
Single-family housing starts declined further in September as high mortgage rates, ongoing building material production disruptions and flagging demand stemming from rising affordability challenges continue to put a damper on new home production. Overall housing starts decreased 8.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.44 million units in September, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing… Read More ›
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Builder Confidence Down 10 Straight Months as Market Continues to Weaken
In a further signal that rising interest rates, building material bottlenecks and elevated home prices continue to weaken the housing market, builder sentiment fell for the 10th straight month in October and traffic of prospective buyers fell to its lowest level since 2012, with the exception of two months during the Spring of 2020. Builder confidence in the market for… Read More ›
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Job Openings Fall as Economy Slows
The count of open, unfilled jobs for the overall economy fell 10% in August, declining from almost 11.2 million to 10.05 million. The decline for open jobs reflects the beginnings of a labor market retreat as the economy slows due to aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the Fed. While the economy continues to face a critical skilled labor shortage,… Read More ›
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New Home Sales Up in August: Will Decline Again with Higher Rates
A brief decline in mortgage rates helped to boost new home sales in August but sales are expected to move lower in the months ahead as rates have since moved higher and builder sentiment continues to fall due to declining housing affordability and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in August increased 28.8% to a 685,000… Read More ›
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Fed Raises by 75 Basis Points, Again
Continuing its tightening of financial conditions to bring the rate of inflation lower, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee raised the federal funds target rate by 75 basis points, increasing that target to an upper bound of 3.25%. This marks the third consecutive meeting with an increase of 75 basis points. These supersized hikes are intended to move monetary policy… Read More ›
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Builder Confidence Falls for Ninth Straight Month as Housing Slowdown Continues
In another sign that the slowdown in the housing market continues, builder sentiment fell for the ninth straight month in September as the combination of elevated interest rates, persistent building material supply chain disruptions and high home prices continue to take a toll on affordability. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points in September… Read More ›
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AD&C Loan Balances Rise as Sales Slow
Residential construction loan volume reached a post-Great Recession high during the second quarter of 2022, as home building activity and new home sales slowed. Outstanding builder loan balances are rising as development debt is being held longer as new homes remain in inventory longer. Loan balances will decline in coming quarters as the development loan market becomes more costly and… Read More ›