Eye On Housing
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Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
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The Employment Situation in May – Job Gains Down, Another Slow Day for the Labor Force
The BLS released the Employment Situation report for May. Payroll employment increased by 138 thousand, and the prior two months were revised downward by a total of 66 thousand. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4% in April, but only because the number of people in the labor force declined faster than the number of people employed in the… Read More ›
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Second Look at GDP Growth in the First Quarter – A Little Better, But About the Same
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the second estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017. Economic activity expanded at a 1.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate, an upward revision from the previous 0.7% estimate. This estimate is based on more complete data than was available for the “advance” estimate. Real GDP grew at a 2.1% rate… Read More ›
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May Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee – From Idea to Proposal
Beyond confirming that if economic activity continues to unfold as expected another increase in the federal funds rate would be appropriate soon (June), the minutes from the May meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) added relatively little to the picture of the path of monetary policy that was laid out in the post-meeting statement and previous policy discussions…. Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in April – Good Day for Job Gains, Slow Day for the Labor Force
The BLS released the Employment Situation report for April. Payroll employment rebounded, adding 211 thousand, after an unexpectedly soft March, a gain of only 79 thousand. Monthly gains have averaged 185 thousand in the first four months of 2017 compared to 187 thousand in all of 2016. The unemployment rate slipped to 4.4% based on a gain of 156 thousand employed… Read More ›
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May Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee – Accentuate the Positive
Economic activity sputtered in the first quarter, job growth stumbled in March, and inflation turned negative at both the headline and core (excluding food and energy) levels. Policymakers on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) “decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3/4 to 1 percent” and pronounced “Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear… Read More ›
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First Look at GDP Growth in the First Quarter – Investment Up (Except Inventories), Consumption Down
Economic activity slowed in the first quarter, GDP growth dropped to a 0.7% seasonally adjusted annual rate from a 2.1% rate in the fourth quarter. The main culprits in the slowdown were personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and inventory investment. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the “advance” estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017. Despite… Read More ›
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Energy and Core Prices Down in March
A sharp decline in energy prices pushed headline inflation negative in March, while core prices (excluding food and energy) fell based on a steep decline in the price of wireless telephone services. The consumer price index (CPI) declined at a 3.4% annual rate. Core prices declined at a 1.5% annual rate. Gasoline prices, declining at a 53.5% annual rate, were… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in March – Weather, Or Not
Unusually warm weather in January and February may have accelerated hiring in those months at the expense of additions to March payroll gains. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports that severe weather (e.g., the mid-March snow storms in the Midwest and Northeast) is more likely to reduce hours worked than workers on payrolls, but that “it is not possible… Read More ›
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March Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee – A Closer Look
The minutes from meetings of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), traditionally released three weeks after the meeting, provide a closer look at the deliberations, than the brief statement released immediately following the meetings. The minutes from the March meeting provide deeper insights in two particular areas: the path of the federal funds… Read More ›
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Third Look at GDP Growth in the Fourth Quarter – A Little Better, Hail Consumers
The third estimate of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2016, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), shows slightly faster economic growth, a 2.1% annual rate, up from 1.9% in the earlier estimate(s). Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) gets all the credit; fixed investment, trade and government spending all declined. PCE rose at a 3.5% rate, up from… Read More ›