Mortgage rates continued to increase in June as markets priced in a rate hike due to high inflation and stronger-than-expected labor market. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% in June, up 8 basis points (bps) over May. Since the conflict in the Middle East began, the 30-year mortgage rate has increased by 44 basis points. The average 15-year rate averaged 5.82% in June, up 8 bps from May, and up 39 basis points since the end of February. Even so, both rates remain lower than a year ago by 33 bps and 13 bps, respectively.
The 10-year Treasury yield, a key benchmark for long-term borrowing, held steady at an average of 4.48% in June. The 10-year yield surpassed 4.5% in the second week of the month following reports of persistent high inflation and a surprisingly resilient labor market. Furthermore, the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting revealed that nine out of 18 Fed officials indicated at least one rate hike within the year.
Nonetheless, the 10-year Treasury yield eased later in the month, ending June at around 4.44%, as the United States and Iran reached a preliminary agreement and signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). The agreement temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping on a “toll-free” basis through mid-August to facilitate further negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program.
