Eye On Housing
Author Archives
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Flat Conditions for Custom Home Building
NAHB’s analysis of Census Data from the Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design survey indicates custom home building was effectively flat over the course of 2018. There were 36,000 total custom starts for the fourth quarter of 2018. This was down compared to the final quarter of 2017 (40,000). Over the course of 2018, custom housing starts totaled 170,000. This… Read More ›
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New Single-Family Home Size Continues Decline
Continuing a multiyear trend, new single-family home size decreased during the final quarter of 2018. According to fourth quarter 2018 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area ticked down to 2,316 square feet. Average (mean) square footage for new single-family homes increased to 2,567 square feet. On a less volatile one-year moving average,… Read More ›
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Despite Slow Quarter, Townhouse Construction Expanded in 2018
According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, townhouse construction posted outperformed other building sectors over the course of 2018. However, like other submarkets, townhouse construction softened during the fourth quarter. Nonetheless, townhouse construction is set for further expansion given the demographics of renters entering the for-sale market, as well as… Read More ›
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AD&C Loan Stock Declines for First Time Since 2013
The volume of residential construction loans decreased 0.2% during the fourth quarter of 2018, ending a period of 22 consecutive quarters of growth. While the decline was small, the slowdown in the stock of lending for development purposes mirrors a recent NAHB survey finding neutral conditions for AD&C lending as interest rates increased. Tight availability of acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) loans has been a limiting… Read More ›
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New Home Sales Up 1.5% for the Year
Despite a period of weakness during the Fall of 2018, new home sales ended 2018 up 1.5% compared to the total for 2017. Contracts for new, single-family home sales increased almost 4% to a 621,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate according to estimates from the joint release of HUD and the Census Bureau. However, the surprisingly strong initially reported November pace was revised down from a… Read More ›
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Housing Starts Drop in December
With the delayed December data now published, the pace of single-family starts declined for the fourth consecutive month as housing affordability concerns weighed on the home construction market at the end of 2018. However, home building posted gains in 2018 relative to 2017. Total single-family and apartment construction starts were up 3.6% for the year, according to the joint data… Read More ›
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Lower Interest Rates, Rising Consumer Confidence Boost Builder Sentiment
Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes rose four points to 62 in February, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment. In the aftermath of the fall slowdown, many… Read More ›
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Construction Job Openings Jump in December
Despite the housing-focused slowdown during the second half of 2018, the count of unfilled jobs in the construction sector surged in December. According to the BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and NAHB analysis, the number of open construction sector jobs increased to a cycle high of 382,000 in December. This is significantly higher than the December 2017 estimate of… Read More ›
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Unexpected Gain for New Home Sales in November
Data for November indicated a surprise gain for the seasonally adjusted annual rate of new single-family home sales. The data was delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Survey data, including builder confidence, suggest December estimates, when published, will show market weakness however. Contracts for new, single-family home sales increased almost 17% to a 657,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate according to… Read More ›
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Fed Pursues Patience
As expected, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy body, the Federal Open Market Committee, unanimously agreed to hold steady the federal funds top rate at 2.5%. The Fed’s January statement was consistent with recent policymakers’ comments suggesting a more flexible stance toward monetary policy at the end of last year and the start of 2019. In particular, the statement indicated that… Read More ›