Eye On Housing
Fourth Quarter GDP: Consumer Strength, Building Growing
The advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicates that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased at a 2.6% annual rate. This was below expectations (generally around 3%). While a “miss,” the first estimate of growth for the final quarter of 2014 includes some notable elements of optimism. In particular, consumers – benefiting from improved balance sheets (in part due… Read More ›
Recent Posts
-
Good Morning in America for Consumers
The January 2015 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment soared to its highest level since January 2004. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index also increased sharply, reaching its highest level since August 2007. While three month moving averages smooth these increases, the picture of renewed confidence shines brightly. The Index of Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 98.1 in January,… Read More ›
-
Effective Rate on New Home Loans Continues Downward Drift
On average, the contract rate on conventional mortgages used to purchase newly-built homes, remained a constant 4.03 percent in December, according to data released yesterday by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). However, initial fees and charges on the loans dropped form 1.23 percent in November down to 1.16 percent. As a result, the average effective rate on new home… Read More ›
-
Eye on the Economy: Housing Starts Top 1 Million for 2014
Total housing starts for 2014 reached the 1 million mark for the first time since 2007. Data from the Census Bureau and HUD for December, plus revisions for October and November, pushed total housing construction to a total of 1,005,800 for the year. Multifamily construction held virtually even at a 361,000 annual rate, down 0.8% from November. For the year,… Read More ›
-
Rental Vacancy Rate at 20 Year Low
The rental market continues to be heat up with the national rental vacancy rate dropping to a 20 year low. At the same time, the homeownership rate continues to fall and is now at a low point not seen since the third quarter of 1994. The current first-time buyers share is 29% and remains well below the historical average of… Read More ›
-
Pending Sales Tumble
The Pending Home Sales decreased 3.7% in December, but was up 6.1% from the same period a year ago. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), decreased to 100.7 in December, down from a downwardly revised 104.6 in November. The PHSI also declined sharply in December… Read More ›
-
Federal Open Market Committee – Pivot to Inflation, Manage Expectations
No major surprises were revealed in the standard summary statement released following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting January 27-28. With economic output expanding, strong job growth and a declining unemployment rate the committee has shifted its focus to below target (2 percent) inflation as the primary threat to the continuing economic recovery. The… Read More ›
-
New Home Sales: Growing Conventional Financing Share
NAHB analysis of the most recent Census numbers regarding the sources of financing for new single-family home sales suggests small changes from the prior quarter, although the long-run trends point to a growing market share for conventional financing sources. The onset of the housing crisis in 2007 led to a decline in the share of new home sales due to conventional… Read More ›
-
House Price Growth Shows Signs of Normalizing
The recent release by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows that its measure of house prices, House Price Index – Purchase Only, rose by 5.3% on a 12-month seasonally adjusted basis in November 2014. This marks the 34th consecutive month of year-over-year growth. Over this period of more than two-and-a-half years, house prices have risen by 19.0% and have… Read More ›
-
Most Millennial Buyers Want Single-family Home in the Suburbs
After rising for four consecutive years, the average size of new homes declined in 2014. The expectation for 2015 is for this receding trend to continue, as more Millennials enter the housing market and demand smaller, more affordable homes. Strong job growth and new lending rules that will allow for smaller down payments and lower mortgage insurance premiums will help… Read More ›