Eye On Housing
Pending Home Sales Retreat in September
After reaching a record high last month, pending home sales cooled in September, ending four straight months of gains. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), reported by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is a forward-looking indicator based on signed contracts. The PHSI fell 2.2% from 132.9 in August to 130.0 in September, the second highest level on record. However,… Read More ›
Recent Posts
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U.S. GDP Rebounded in the Third Quarter
The U.S. economy rose at the fastest rate on record in the third quarter of 2020 as the economy recovery took hold. Real GDP in the third quarter was close to the pre-recession level, but further recovery is needed. According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an… Read More ›
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55+ Housing Market Index Reaches All-Time High in Third Quarter
Builder confidence in the single-family 55+ housing market reached an all-time high, jumping 18 points to 83 in the third quarter of 2020, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) (Figure 1). The 55+ HMI measures two segments of the 55+ housing market: single-family homes and multifamily condominiums. Each segment of the 55+ HMI measures builder sentiment based… Read More ›
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3Q GDP: Residential Investment Up at a 59% Growth Rate
Housing has staged a dramatic turnaround since the spring. Due to low mortgage interest rates, a renewed focus on the importance of home, an evolving geography of housing demand, and a lack of for-sale inventory, the housing sector has been a relative bright spot for the economy. For the third quarter, overall GDP growth rebounded at a 33.1% seasonally adjusted… Read More ›
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Upper End of Mortgage Market in Full Swing
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest Weekly Application Survey shows that, for the week ending October 23, 2020, mortgage application activity increased by 1.7% from the prior week on a seasonally adjusted basis, as indicated by its Market Composite Index. Its two constituent indexes, the Purchasing Index and the Refinance Index, increased by 1.7% and 0.2%, respectively. The MBA’s tracked 30-year… Read More ›
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Some Buyers Perceive an Improvement in Housing Affordability
For some home buyers, housing affordability improved in the last 12 months. According to the Housing Trends Report for the third quarter of 2020, 27% of buyers report being able to afford half or more of the homes available for-sale in their markets. A year earlier, that share was 20%. The increase is an indication that lower mortgage rates have… Read More ›
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Home Price Appreciation Accelerates in August
In August, home price appreciation accelerated in major markets across the nation. The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices, rose at a seasonally adjusted annual growth rate of 12.1% in August, faster than an 8.9% increase in July. It marks the highest annual growth rate since April 2013. On a year-over-year basis,… Read More ›
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Homeownership During the Third Quarter: Technical Issues
The Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey (CPS/HVS) reported the U.S. homeownership rate declined to 67.4% in the third quarter of 2020, from 67.9% in the prior quarter. The elevated homeownership rates are line with increases in both existing and new home sales in the second quarter. The national rental vacancy rate increased, while the homeowner vacancy rate remained unchanged. However,… Read More ›
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Buoyed by Low Interest Rates, Conventional Loan Market Share Rises
NAHB analysis of the most recent Quarterly Sales by Price and Financing published by the U.S. Census Bureau reveals that conventional loans financed the most new home sales in a quarter since 2007. The share of sales backed by conventional loans in the third quarter was 71.8%–the largest share since Q4 2018, but well below the housing boom peak of 91.7% (Q4… Read More ›
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New Home Sales Growth Rate Slows in September
After a surge in the pace of new home sales in July and August, the growth rate of newly built single-family home slowed in September. While still strong, the growth rate of new home sales exceeded construction starts by a historic margin at the end of the summer, necessitating an increase in starts and some slowing of sales. According to… Read More ›