Elevated mortgage rates acted as a drag on new home sales in November, but with the economy now apparently past peak interest rates for this cycle, sales are expected to rise as we move into the new year. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in November fell 12.2% to a 590,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate,…
Single-family construction surged in November as lower mortgage rates helped to assuage affordability concerns and unleash pent-up demand for housing. Overall housing starts increased 14.8% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.56 million units, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau….
After years of being unable to ratchet up the number of new workers coming from outside the U.S. to help with persistent labor shortages, the construction industry reversed this trend and managed to attract over 90,000 new immigrant workers, levels unseen since the housing boom of 2005-2006. Native-born workers remain reluctant and continue joining the…
Over the first ten months of 2023, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 773,526. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is 10.7% below the October 2022 level of 865,815. Year-to-date ending in October, single-family permits declined in all four regions. The range of permit decline spanned 8.6% in the Northeast…
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee held the federal funds rate constant at a top target rate of 5.5% at the conclusion of its December meeting. The Fed will continue to reduce its balance sheet holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities as part of quantitative tightening and balance sheet normalization. Marking a third consecutive meeting…
According to data from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC), 62.6% of single-family homes started in 2022 were built within a community or homeowner’s association. This marks the second year in a row that the share declined, from the high point of 67.1% posted in 2020, and 65.5% in 2021. Prior to 2021 the…
The bond market appears to be responding to cooling macroeconomic data, including labor market reporting, as long-term rates fall back. Among the risk factors that previously led to higher interest rates (more debt issuance, higher-for-longer monetary policy expectations, long-term fiscal deficit conditions, and strong current GDP growth data for the third quarter) was an ongoing,…
