Eye On Housing
Author Archives
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Housing Share of GDP Edges Higher at Start of 2022
Housing’s share of the economy edged higher at the start of 2022 due in part to a surprise drop in growth. For the first quarter of 2022, overall GDP growth declined at a 1.4% annual rate, driven by increased inventories and a jump in imports. Housing’s share of GDP increased to 16.7%, somewhat off a 14-year high of 17.8% during… Read More ›
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FHA-Share of New Home Sales at 15-Year Low
NAHB analysis of the most recent Census estimates concerning sources of financing for new home sales reveals that conventional loans accounted for 78.5% of new home sales in the first quarter of 2022, the highest share in more than a decade. Conventional loans financed over three-quarters of new home sales in the second quarter of 2008 before steadily falling and bottoming out at 57.3%… Read More ›
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Single-Family Permits Weaken in March
Single-family starts permits declined in March, as higher interest rates weighed on housing affordability and produced a fourth straight decline for the NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI. Additionally, the cost and availability of materials, lumber, labor and lots remain key supply-side headwinds. Nonetheless, the resale market lacks inventory supporting ongoing demand for new construction. Single-family permits decreased 4.8% to a 1.15 million… Read More ›
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Housing Market at Inflection Point as Builder Confidence Continues to Fall
Rapidly rising interest rates combined with ongoing home price increases and higher construction costs continue to take a toll on builder confidence and housing affordability. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes moved two points lower to 77 in April, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the… Read More ›
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Steady Number of Open Construction Jobs
The construction labor market remains tight, as the industry sees a rising number of job openings year-over-year. The count of open construction jobs remained steady at 381,000 unfilled positions in February. The highest measure in the history of the data series (going back to late 2000) was 416,000 in April 2019. The housing market remains underbuilt and requires additional labor,… Read More ›
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New Home Sales Decline in February
New single-family home sales posted a second monthly decline in February as housing demand was affected by a jump in mortgage rates. After starting at 3.1% in December, rates increased to 3.45% in January and 3.76% in February, per Freddie Mac. Additionally, builders continue to grapple with supply-chain issues, limiting inventory in a market for which new construction is an… Read More ›
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Solid Reading for Housing Starts in February
Single-family starts posted a small increase in February, as lack of resale inventory continues to support housing demand despite higher interest rates. The availability of materials, lumber, labor and lots remain key headwinds, with access to labor in particular likely to become more challenging in 2022. Overall housing starts increased 6.8% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of… Read More ›
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Monetary Policy Tightening Underway
The first of many expected Federal Reserve hikes of the short-term federal funds rate was announced today. Combined with future balance sheet runoff, these monetary policy moves will lead to higher mortgage rates in 2022 and 2023 as the Fed attempts to curb elevated inflation. As widely expected by forecasters and markets, the Fed raised the federal funds rate by… Read More ›
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Diminished Future Sales Expectations, Rising Costs Lower Builder Confidence
Ongoing lumber and building material supply-side constraints and rising construction costs and expectations of higher interest rates continue to negatively affect builder sentiment even as buyer demand remains relatively solid. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes moved two points lower to 79 in March from a downwardly revised reading in February, according to the National Association… Read More ›
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Increasing Open Jobs in Construction
The construction labor market remains tight, as the industry sees a rising number of job openings year-over-year. The count of open construction jobs increased for the month to 380,000 unfilled positions in January. The highest measure in the history of the data series (going back to late 2000) was 416,000 in April 2019. The housing market remains underbuilt and requires… Read More ›