Home builders are keenly aware of the complex long-term outlook ahead for the home building industry. A recent NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI survey asked builders to assess the impact of 14 major trends and forces on the health of the industry and housing demand over the next 10 years. Results show that home builders expect a mix of demographic, economic, and technological forces to exert significant, long-term influence on the industry.
At one end, most builders consider five forces as strong or somewhat negative long-term risks to the industry and housing demand:
- Government debt levels: 82%
- Declining fertility rate: 78%
- Long-term inflation outlook: 70%
- Declining marriage rate: 67%
- Energy costs: 61%
At the same time, builders identified several forces they expect to have a strong or somewhat positive impact on the health of the home building industry and housing demand over the next decade, led by structural and technological shifts:
- Aging housing stock: 73%
- Work-from-home trends: 65%
- Artificial intelligence: 52%
- Modular and panelized construction: 45%
These findings reveal that while long-term demographic trends and fiscal pressures are considered serious headwinds, builders also see meaningful opportunities to adapt related to an aging housing stock, evolving work patterns, and artificial intelligence. For additional details and results, please consult the full survey report.