Housing affordability remains a critical issue, with 65% of U.S. households unable to afford a median-priced new home in 2026. When mortgage rates are elevated, even a small increase in home prices can have a big impact on housing affordability. NAHB’s latest priced out analysis shows how many households are already priced out of homeownership at the median home price and how sensitive affordability is to further price changes.
At a median home price of $413,595 and a 30-year mortgage rate of 6%, roughly 88.2 million households are priced out of the market. If the median new home price goes up by just $1,000, the monthly mortgage payment increases by about $6, and the required minimum income rises by nearly $300 per year. This small change alone will price an additional 156,405 households out of the market.
Rising prices are increasingly squeezing for middle-income households, not just those at the lower end of the income distribution. More than half of U.S. households earn less than $80,000 annually, and nearly two-thirds earn less than $106,000. These households fall short of the income required to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced new home in 2026. As a result, affordability challenges are not limited to low-income households. Expanding the supply of entry-level housing remains critical to improving affordability. Without additional supply, even small increases in home prices are likely to continue pushing more households out of the market.
