Eye On Housing
Friday’s post described how, in the construction industry, job layoffs have plunged while unfilled job positions remain elevated (according to the government’s latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover report). If more evidence of a severe supply chain challenge is needed, the record percentages of NAHB members reporting labor shortages in recent surveys can provide it. Let’s turn first to the… Read More ›
Over the first nine months of 2021, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 864,184. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a 21.2% increase over the September 2020 level of 713,286. Year-to-date ending in September, single-family permits increased in all four regions. Southern region reported the strongest increase of 22.8%, followed by Northeast (+20.4%), West… Read More ›
The labor market continues to tighten. In the September BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data, the national number of job quits for all sectors (4.4 million) was up 34% year-over-year as worker churn accelerates. Total national job openings stands at 10.4 million. What had been, in prior years, a challenge in certain sectors, like construction, continues as… Read More ›
The Federal Reserve has supported the housing market during the virus crisis, the 2020 recession, and the subsequent, ongoing recovery via asset-backed purchases (among other tools), including $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed security (MBS) purchases. These MBS purchases have held interest rates lower than they otherwise would have been. Beginning in November, the Fed will reduce the monthly volume of… Read More ›
Thanks to a surge in residential investment during 2020, housing’s share of GDP remains elevated compared to recent years. Last year’s market conditions involved a renewed focus on the importance of home, an evolving geography of housing demand, and a lack of for-sale inventory. Housing has continued to expand in 2021, although as the rest of the economy recovers, the housing… Read More ›
Contracts for new, single-family home sales increased 14% to an 800,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate in September according to estimates from the joint release of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau. On a year-over-year basis, the September estimate was 18% lower than a year ago, when an unsustainable rebound took hold in… Read More ›
Home building, like other U.S. industries, has been dealing with the supply side challenges of labor and material shortages. Unlike other industries, however, home builders confront an additional challenge in obtaining lots on which to build. In a recent NAHB survey, 76 percent of builders reported that the overall supply of developed lots in their areas was low to very… Read More ›
Despite the volatility surrounding the recent COVID-19 pandemic, the housing market has shown remarkable resilience, fueled by demographic tailwinds and a housing shortage due to a decade of underbuilding. Home construction slowed after 2007 as a result of the 2008 Great Recession, but home building staged a slow, modest recovery over the last decade, with a sharp acceleration in 2020… Read More ›
Total housing starts decreased 1.6% in September, according to data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the U.S. Census Bureau. Single-family starts were flat for the month, while overall multifamily starts declined in August. The August total starts reading of 1.56 million starts is the number of housing units builders would begin if development kept this… Read More ›
Strong consumer demand helped push builder confidence higher in October despite growing affordability challenges stemming from rising material prices and shortages. Builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes moved four points higher to 80 in October, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Despite the increase, builders are getting increasingly concerned… Read More ›