Eye On Housing
While new home sales received a slight bounce in November from moderating mortgage rates, the housing market continues to struggle because of ongoing supply chain disruptions, elevated construction costs, and challenging affordability conditions. Sales of newly built, single-family homes in November increased 5.8% to a 640,000 seasonally adjusted annual rate, according to newly released data by the U.S. Department of… Read More ›
Single-family housing starts continued to fall in November, with the pace of construction down 32% since February when mortgage rates began to rise. The housing market continues to weaken because stubbornly high construction costs and elevated interest rates are harming housing affordability. And with the count of multifamily units under construction reaching a near 50-year high, multifamily permit growth is… Read More ›
High mortgage rates, elevated construction costs running well above the inflation rate, and flagging consumer demand due to deteriorating affordability conditions have dragged builder sentiment down every month in 2022. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes posted its 12th straight monthly decline in December, dropping two points to 31, according to the National Association of Home… Read More ›
Over the first ten months of 2022, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 865,815. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is 8.7% below the October 2021 level of 948,321. Year-to-date ending in October, single-family permits declined in all four regions. The South posted a modest decline of 6.8%, while the Midwest and the West regions… Read More ›
Reflecting the unprecedented housing shortages across the United States in the post-pandemic market, U.S. vacancy rates hit their lowest readings in decades in 2021. According to NAHB’s analysis of the 2021 American Community Survey (ACS), owner vacancy rates dropped below 0.9% and rental vacancy rates reached a new low of 5.2%, the lowest levels recorded by the ACS since the… Read More ›
According to data from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC), 65.5 percent of single-family homes started in 2021 were built within a community or homeowner’s association. Since the re-design of the SOC in 2009, this was the second highest percentage for new homes started with an association. The Census Bureau defines community or homeowner’s associations as “formal legal entities… Read More ›
Downshifting its pace of tightening of monetary policy, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee raised the federal funds target rate by 50 basis points, increasing that target to an upper bound of 4.5%. This marked a relatively smaller increase after four previous 75 basis point hikes. The Fed has clearly communicated it will continue to tighten monetary policy however, raising… Read More ›
According to data from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC), custom homes accounted for 17.6 percent of new single-family homes started—down slightly from the 17.8 percent recorded in 2020 and the lowest the annual custom home share has been since the 2005 re-design of the SOC. The custom home market consists of contractor-built and owner-built houses—homes built one at… Read More ›
In November of 2022, 36 percent of single-family home builders reported reducing their prices, and 59 percent were offering special sales incentives. These percentages may seem relatively high—and in fact they have increased significantly since July of this year—but they are nowhere near as high as they were during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Questions on sales incentives have been a… Read More ›
Residential construction loan volume reached a post-Great Recession high during the third quarter of 2022, as home building activity and new home sales remained weak. Outstanding builder loan balances are rising as development debt is being held longer as new homes remain in inventory longer. Loan balances will decline in coming quarters as the development loan market becomes more costly… Read More ›