Tag Archive for ‘COVID-19’

Treasury-Mortgage Spread Significantly Narrows in November

In November, the yield on the 10-year Treasury trended upwards while the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate, as measured by Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), continued to fall. Thus, the widely tracked spread between these two indicators, i.e. the spread, narrowed. The above figure shows that, per the latest month’s data, the spread was as low as 179 basis… Read More ›

Residential Construction Is Recovering Faster Than Non-Residential Construction

Job gains slowed sharply in November as the COVID-19 surge continued. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 245,000 in November, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.7%. Total construction industry (both residential and non-residential) employment totaled 7.4 million in November. Residential construction employment rose by 15,400 in November to 2.9 million. In the past seven months, job gains in residential construction offset… Read More ›

Jobless Claims Fall to 712,000

During Thanksgiving week, weekly initial jobless claims declined to the lowest level since the end of March. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, continued a downward trend for the week ending November 21. The labor market has been recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic gradually for the past eight months. However, it is worth noting that a… Read More ›

Suburban Shift for Home Construction Continues into Third Quarter

A trend of higher demand for housing in lower-density areas reported in the second quarter National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Home Building Geography Index (HBGI) has persisted into the fall, as single-family and multifamily construction continued to overperform in lower cost markets like suburbs and exurbs. The third quarter HBGI reveals that a suburban shift for consumer home buying… Read More ›

Jobless Claims Rise After Four Consecutive Declines

For the week ending November 14, weekly initial jobless claims rose for the first time since early October. Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, continued a downward trend for the week ending November 7. The labor market has been recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic gradually for the past seven months. Looking forward, the path to recovery… Read More ›

Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey Q3 2020

The Federal Reserve’s latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices addresses changes in the standards and terms on, and demand for, bank loans to businesses and households. The lending data show a tightening of standards across all purposes , but sufficient demand-strength for gains in residential real estate. For the third quarter, significant net shares of banks… Read More ›

Jobless Claims Continue to Decline

Weekly initial jobless claims declined slightly for the week ending November 7, and continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, continued a downward trend for the week ending October 31. Labor market continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic but the pace is slow. According to the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report released by the U.S. Department… Read More ›

Treasury-Mortgage Spread Significantly Narrows in October

In October 2020, the spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate, as measured by Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS), significantly narrowed as Treasury rates were pushed upward in anticipation of a vaccine breakthrough and a rebound in the labor market and as mortgage rates remained low. At the beginning of October, the 10-year… Read More ›

Open-Ended Credit Rebounds in Third Quarter

The Federal Reserve’s latest G.19 Consumer Credit Report shows trends in consumer credit, excluding loans secured by real estate, through September 2020. In the third quarter of 2020, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2-1/4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased by 4 percent and revolving credit decreased by 2-1/2 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at… Read More ›

Residential Construction Employment Is Higher Than a Year Ago

The recovery of overall labor market continued but at a slow pace. In October, 638,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.9%. However, October residential construction employment was 11,500 higher than a year ago, marking the first year-over-year gain since the recession of 2020. Residential construction employment rose by 23,800 in October to 2.9 million… Read More ›