National Association of Home Builders Economic Research Blog

Inflation Eased in January
Inflation Eased in January
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Inflation eased to an eight-month low in January, confirming a continued downward trend. Though most Consumer Price Index (CPI) components have resolved shutdown-related distortions from last fall, the shelter index ...
Existing Home Sales Retreat Amid Low Inventory
Existing Home Sales Retreat Amid Low Inventory
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Existing home sales fell in January to a more than two-year low after December’s strong rebound, as tight inventory continued to push home prices higher and winter storms weighed on ...
Residential Building Worker Wages Slow in 2025 Amid Cooling Housing Activity
Residential Building Worker Wages Slow in 2025 Amid Cooling Housing Activity
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Wage growth for residential building workers moderated notably in 2025, reflecting a broader cooling in housing activity and construction labor demand. According to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau ...
Low-Rise Multifamily Shows Strength at End of 2025; Other Segments Weak
Low-Rise Multifamily Shows Strength at End of 2025; Other Segments Weak
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Even though garden/low-rise continues to be strong, overall confidence in the market for new multifamily housing decreased year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to the Multifamily Market Survey (MMS) released ...
Job Growth Starts Year on Strong Note: However, 2025 Revisions Offer Caution
Job Growth Starts Year on Strong Note: However, 2025 Revisions Offer Caution
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The U.S. labor market began 2026 at a surprisingly strong pace, while newly released benchmark revisions show that job growth in 2025 was considerably weaker than previously reported. Nonfarm payrolls ...
Credit Card Balances Rise in Q4 2025 
Credit Card Balances Rise in Q4 2025 
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Overall consumer credit continued to expand in the fourth quarter of 2025, with growth in both nonrevolving and revolving credit. Nonrevolving credit, primarily student and auto loans, accounts for 74% ...
Weaker Demand, Unchanged Lending Conditions for Residential Mortgages in Fourth Quarter
Weaker Demand, Unchanged Lending Conditions for Residential Mortgages in Fourth Quarter
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Lending standards for most types of residential mortgages were essentially unchanged but overall demand was weaker in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to the recent release of the Senior ...
Lower Rates Lift Mortgage Activity at Start of the Year
Lower Rates Lift Mortgage Activity at Start of the Year
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Mortgage application activity rose sharply in January, driven primarily by a surge in refinancing activity as mortgage rates declined to a new low. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite ...
The Size of the Housing Shortage: 2024 Data
The Size of the Housing Shortage: 2024 Data
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Persistently low homeowner and rental vacancy rates indicate that the U.S. housing market remains structurally undersupplied. Comparing 2024 abnormally low vacancy rates with long-run equilibrium levels across U.S. metropolitan markets, ...
Job Openings Fall as Labor Market Weakens
Job Openings Fall as Labor Market Weakens
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Running counter to the data for the full economy, the count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry increased in December, per the delayed Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings ...
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Despite historically low self-employment rates and the rising market share of top ten builders, residential construction remains an industry dominated by independent entrepreneurs, with nearly 80% of home builders and specialty trade contractor firms being self-employed independent contractors. Even among firms with paid employees, the...

Manufactured homes play a measurable role in the U.S. housing market by providing an affordable supply option for millions of households. According to the American Housing Survey (AHS), there are 7.2 million occupied manufactured homes in the U.S., representing 5.4% of total occupied housing and...

In September 2025, nonfarm payroll employment was largely unchanged across states on a monthly basis, with a limited number of states seeing statistically significant increases or decreases. This reflects generally stable job counts across states despite broader labor market fluctuations. The data were impacted by...

Existing home sales rose for the third consecutive month in November as lower mortgage rates continued to boost home sales, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). However, the increase remained modest as mortgage rates still stayed above 6% while down from recent highs....

Sawmill production has remained essentially flat over the past two years, according to the Federal Reserve G.17 Industrial Production report. This most recent data release contained an annual revision, which resulted in higher estimates for both production and capacity in U.S. sawmills. While in previous...

Inflation unexpectedly eased in November, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) latest report. This data release was originally scheduled for December 10 but was delayed due to the recent government shutdown. While most indexes showed deceleration, this report does not necessarily prove a...

In 2024, the number of people experiencing homelessness increased to the highest estimate in the history of HUD’s Annual Point-in-Time (PIT) Count. Approximately 771,500 people were recorded as living in an emergency shelter, a transitional housing program, or in unsheltered locations across the country. This count increased 18% compared to 2023, a notable increase compared to previous years as shown in graph...

In November, job growth slowed, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level in four years. At the same time, job gains for the previous two months (August and September) were revised downward. The November’s jobs report indicates a cooling labor market as...

Builder confidence inched higher to end the year but still remains well into negative territory as builders continue to grapple with rising construction costs, tariff and economic uncertainty, and many potential buyers remaining on the sidelines due to affordability concerns. Builder confidence in the market...

The latest homeownership rate rose to 65.3% in the third quarter of 2025, according to the Census’s Housing Vacancy Survey (HVS). Despite this quarterly increase, the trend continues to reflect significant affordability challenges. With mortgage interest rates remaining elevated, and housing supply still tight, housing...

The central bank’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut rates a third and final time in 2025, reducing the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a 3.5% to 3.75% range. This reduction will help reduce financing costs of builder...

The count of open, unfilled positions in the construction industry was relatively unchanged in October, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The current level of open jobs is down measurably from two years ago due to declines in...

Mortgage activity continued to climb in November, posting the largest year-over-year increase in more than five years. Every major category increased on a year-over-year basis as mortgage rates continue to trend lower, led by strong increases in refinancing and adjustable-rate mortgage activity.  The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Market Composite Index, a measure of total mortgage application volume, fell 1.6% from October on a seasonally adjusted basis but was 60% higher than...

In 2024, 65.7% of all new single-family homes started were built within a community or homeowner’s association. This share increased from the 64.8% recorded in 2023, according to data tabulated from the Census Bureau’s Survey of Construction (SOC). This marks the second highest share since...

The average mortgage rate in November continued to trend lower to its lowest level in over a year. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.24% in November, 2 basis points (bps) lower than in October. Meanwhile, the 15-year rate increased 3 bps...

Single-family homes started in 2024 typically had two full bathrooms, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Survey of Construction. Homes with three full bathrooms continued to have the second largest share of starts at around 23%. Meanwhile, both homes with four full bathrooms or...

House prices continued to rise in the third quarter of 2025, though the pace of growth slowed as elevated mortgage rates, affordability challenges, and persistent economic uncertainty weighed on consumer demand. After several years of rapid growth, Hawaii and 38 metro areas saw house price...

Single-family construction lending picked up in the third quarter, amidst the overall cooling lending environment. Loan balances for 1-4 family construction grew to $91.2 billion in the third quarter, registering the first annual increase in over two years. However, across all acquisition, development and construction...

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