Eye On Housing
Recent Posts - page 2
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Builder Confidence Edges Higher in March but Future Outlook Uncertain
Although high construction costs and elevated interest rates continue to hamper housing affordability, builders expressed cautious optimism in March as a lack of existing inventory is shifting demand to the new home market. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes in March rose two points to 44, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo… Read More ›
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Inflation Eased Despite Sticky Housing Costs
Consumer prices in February saw the smallest year-over-year gain since September 2021 with an eighth consecutive month of a deceleration. However, the shelter index (housing inflation) continued to rise at an accelerated pace and was the largest contributor to the total increase, accounting for over 70% of the increase. Shelter inflation is a lagging indicator and will primarily be cooled… Read More ›
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Permits Decline At The Start of 2023
Over the first month of 2023, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 53,062. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is 36.4% below the January 2022 level of 83,404. Year-to-date ending in January, single-family permits declined in all four regions. The Northeast posted a decline of 20.3%, while the West region reported the steepest decline of… Read More ›
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Employment Situation in January: State-Level Analysis
Nonfarm payroll employment increased in 48 states and the District of Columbia in January compared to the previous month, while Wyoming and Rhode Island lost jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nationwide total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 504,000 in January, following a gain of 260,000 jobs in December. On a month-over-month basis, employment data was strong in… Read More ›
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Job Gains Continue in February Amid Mixed Signals
Job growth continued in February. After a revised 504,000 job gain in January, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 311,000 in February, and the unemployment rate edged up to 3.6% from 3.4% in January. Wage growth increased to a 4.6% year-over-year gain from 4.4% last month, but down compared to February 2022. Today’s job report indicates that, overall, the labor… Read More ›
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Households’ Real Estate Asset Value Falls for First Time Since 2012
The most recent release of the Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States shows a decrease in the value of households’ real estate assets over the fourth quarter of 2022. As home prices begin to decrease from pandemic highs, households’ real estate asset value fell for the first time since the first quarter of 2012. The level of households’ real… Read More ›
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Cost of Constructing a Home in 2022
The NAHB recently published its latest Cost of Construction Survey. Results show that 60.8% of the average home sale price consisted of construction costs, essentially unchanged from the 61.1% posted in 2019. Since the inception of this series in 1998, this was the fourth time construction costs represent over 60% of the total price of the home (2013: 61.7%, 2015:… Read More ›
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Significant Drop for Construction Job Openings
The count of open, unfilled jobs for the overall economy declined slightly in January, falling to 10.8 million, after an 11.2 million reading in December, which was the highest level since July. The count of total job openings should fall in 2023 as the labor market softens and the unemployment rises. From an inflation perspective, ideally the count of open,… Read More ›
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Mortgage Activity Increases Despite Mortgage Rate Volatility
Per the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) survey through the week ending March 3rd, total mortgage activity increased 7.4% from the previous week and the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) rate rose eight basis points to 6.79%. The FRM rate has risen 61 basis points over the past month. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, rose… Read More ›
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Single-Family Market Share Continues to Shift from Large Population Centers
While nationwide single-family housing starts have slowed in the past year, the largest drop on a percentage basis is occurring in the densest counties, due to high housing costs. Meanwhile, multifamily growth was robust throughout much of the nation at the end of 2022, with the notable exception in high-density markets, according to the latest findings from the National Association… Read More ›