Eye On Housing
Author Archives
Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
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The Employment Situation in September – Loosening the Hawks’ Grip
Today’s employment report was disappointing on all fronts: weak payroll growth, downward revisions to prior months, and another decline in the participation rate. The unemployment rate was unchanged only because the labor force shrank faster than the number of employed persons. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that payroll employment expanded by 142 thousand in September, well below expectations…. Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the Second Quarter – Solid Growth
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2015, raising growth up 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%. The bulk of the additional growth was concentrated in personal consumption expenditures and business fixed investment. Growth was 0.6% in the first quarter. Overall, the composition of growth looks good; strength in… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee September Meeting – Feels Like December
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), concluded its September meeting announcing no increase in the federal funds rate. Global economic and financial uncertainty was the reason to wait. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen explained the decision in her post-meeting press conference. The domestic economic recovery is shaping up nicely. Economic and payroll employment… Read More ›
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Producer Prices in August – ‘Tis the Season …
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for August. Inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) were unchanged in August following a 0.2% increase in July. Separately, a 0.4% increase in prices for services was offset by a 0.6% decline in prices for goods, driven mainly by falling gas prices. Excluding food and… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in August – Rorschach at the Fed
Today’s employment report offers a Rorschach test for Federal Reserve officials. The report tells less about the labor market than reactions to it will tell about observers’ thinking. It is sufficiently ambiguous that monetary policy hawks will see in it what they need to go forward with a September rate hike, while doves will see it as evidence to hold… Read More ›
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Consumer Confidence in August, Interest Rate Hikes by New Years, Housing Market Implications?
Six years after the official end of the recession consumer confidence has recovered most of the ground lost during the downturn. The Conference Board reported that its trademark Consumer Confidence Index jumped more than 10 points in August. The present situation index and expectations index rose 11.1 points and 10.2 points, respectively, pushing the overall confidence index up 10.5 points… Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the Second Quarter – Upside Surprise, Implications for Fed Action?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its second estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2015, revising the earlier 2.3% growth estimate up to 3.7%. The revisions were broad based with faster growth in consumption, investment, government spending and trade adding to the upward revision. Business investment contributed 0.8 of the 1.4 percentage point increase, followed… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee July Meeting – Are We There Yet?
The minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), provide some detail on the most recent round of deliberations addressing the question: Is the economic recovery strong enough to begin the process of monetary policy normalization? The committee members were in agreement that much progress has been made over… Read More ›
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Producer Prices in July – Wood Products Bunt, Gypsum Slides
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for July. Inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) rose 0.2% in July after a 0.4% increase in June. The increase was based on rising prices for services (0.4%), prices for goods declined (-0.1%). Prices for both food and energy goods declined. Excluding food… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in July – March to September
The Employment Situation report for July offered more evidence of steady progress in the labor market recovery, the accumulated improvement that may convince the Federal Reserve that it’s time to start raising interest rates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that payroll employment expanded by 215 thousand in July. Revisions to May and June added 14 thousand additional jobs…. Read More ›