Eye On Housing
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Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
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The Employment Situation in February – March Madness?
The jobs report for February showed a strong bounce back from a soft January with upward revisions to prior months. In a separate report last week weak fourth quarter GDP growth was revised up slightly, and inflation has moved closer to the Fed’s 2% target in each of the last three months. Would an increase in the federal funds rate… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee January Meeting – Who To Believe?
The minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), a more detailed account than the statement released immediately following the meeting, and traditionally released three weeks after the meeting, indicate an increase in the uncertainty surrounding current economic conditions and their implications for economic growth, labor market improvements and… Read More ›
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Producer Prices in January – Services Up, Energy Down
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for January. Inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) increased 0.1% in January based on increased prices for services. Prices received by producers for goods declined 0.7% based on another large decline in energy prices. Excluding food and energy, prices for goods rose 0.2%. Softwood… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in January – A Cold Wind?
A soft jobs report: a bad month or a cold wind in the face of economic recovery? The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment expanded by 151 thousand in January (from the survey of payrolls at establishments), an unexpected slowdown from prior months. Results from the household survey were more encouraging, showing the unemployment rate ticking down to… Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the Fourth Quarter – Out Like a Lamb
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015, reporting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.7%. GDP grew at an annual pace of 3.9% and 2.0% in the second and third quarters, respectively. The BEA emphasizes that the advance estimate is based on incomplete data and will be… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee January Meeting – No Change
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), concluded its January meeting and released the standard post-meeting statement announcing the widely expected result of no change in the target for the benchmark short-term interest federal funds rate leaving it at 25-50 basis points. The committee recognized continuing progress in the labor market despite slower economic… Read More ›
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Producer Prices in December – Energy Pushes Prices Lower
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for December. Inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) declined 0.2% in December based on declining energy prices. Prices for goods declined 0.7%, but excluding food and energy, rose 0.1%. Prices for services rose 0.1%. Softwood lumber prices moved lower in December. Prices have… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in December – A Strong Finish To 2015
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment expanded by 292 thousand in December and revisions added 50 thousand to estimates for the prior two months. The household survey showed strong gains in both the labor force (466 thousand) and persons employed (485 thousand). The unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%. Three consecutive months of strong gains in both… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee December Meeting – Gradual Adjustments In The Stance of Monetary Policy
Just as few were surprised when the Federal Reserve announced the first increase in the target range for the federal funds rate in the statement following the December meeting, there were few surprises in the more detailed minutes of the meeting, released three weeks later. The minutes reiterated the basic themes that have guided deliberations in recent months: accumulated improvements… Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the Third Quarter – Third Time’s A Charm
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2015, subtracting 0.1 percentage point from the second estimate, bringing growth down to 2.0%. GDP grew at an annual pace of 3.9% in the second quarter. As with the revision from advance estimate to second, the most significant change between the… Read More ›