Eye On Housing
Author Archives
Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
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The Employment Situation in April – A Bad Month
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment expanded by 160 thousand in April, below analysts’ expectations of roughly 200 thousand, and revised the prior two months down by 19 thousand. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.0% based on a large decline in the number of persons employed (316 thousand) offset by a similar decline in the labor… Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the First Quarter – Double, Double Oil and Trouble
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016, reporting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.5%. Economic growth has declined steadily from its recent peak of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2015. Declining activity was broad based enough to be troubling: slowing personal consumption expenditures (PCE), declines… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee April Meeting – Language Please
To no one’s surprise the FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged; the language used to communicate the (non-)action hedged. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), concluded the April meeting and released the statement announcing no change in the federal funds rate, maintaining the current 0.25% to 0.50% target range. The statement went… Read More ›
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Producer Prices in March – Energy Up, Services Down
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for March. Inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) declined 0.1% in March based on declining prices in the service sector. In contrast, prices for goods rose 0.2% driven largely by a 1.8% increase in energy goods. The price index for goods less food… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee March Meeting – Expect an April Freeze
The minutes from the March meeting of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), provide details of the deliberations regarding assessments of the current state of the economy and the anticipated pace of future increases to the target range for federal funds rate. April is off the table, the funds rate will be frozen… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in March – Labor Force Participation!!!
The jobs report for March showed continuing strong payroll gains and an uptick in the unemployment rate (in a good way) but the most positive feature of the report was the increase in the labor force participation rate. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment expanded by 215 thousand in March and revised the prior two months down… Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the Fourth Quarter – Getting Better
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015, reporting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.4%. The three separate estimates for the quarter, based on increasingly better (more complete) data, moved GDP growth from 0.7% to 1.0% to 1.4%. The latest revisions reflect faster growth of personal consumption… Read More ›
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Existing Home Sales Tumble in February
The National Association of Realtors released existing home sales data for February. Sales of existing homes tumbled to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.08 million, from 5.47 million in January. Existing single family sales slowed to 4.51 million, from 4.86 million in January. After several months of heightened volatility the slowdown brings sales more in line with trend growth… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee March Meeting – Fed Funds Target Unchanged
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), concluded the March meeting and in her post-meeting press conference Chair Janet Yellen announced no change in the target range for the federal funds rate. A second increase in March, following the initial increase in December, was widely expected by analysts after the December meeting, but expectations… Read More ›
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Producer Prices in January – Energy Down (again), Services Flat
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for February. Inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) fell 0.2% in February based on declining energy prices. Prices for services were unchanged while prices for goods declined 0.6%. Excluding food and energy, prices for goods rose 0.1%. Softwood lumber prices trended down modestly… Read More ›