Eye On Housing
Author Archives
Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
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First Look at the Federal Open Market Committee July Meeting – See You in September
The statement released following the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sends a strong signal that the June jitters that upended the April willingness have passed; a September federal funds rate increase is back on the table. In the statement, the committee upgraded their assessment of the economy since June. Economic activity was upgraded to “expanding at… Read More ›
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House Prices in May – Volatile Prices? Blame Sales
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index (CS) was released today. The index has been moving up steadily since hitting a housing bust low in late 2011. But the pace of increase has varied over the ensuing 53 months. Analysts track house price growth in a number of ways: the index (equal to 100 in January 2000) rose… Read More ›
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New Home Sales in June – Steady Progress
The US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development in a joint release reported that newly constructed single family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 592 thousand in June and revised May sales up to 572 thousand. This pace represents steady progress from housing bust lows below 300 thousand but is still well short of… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in June – Back On Track
The labor market report for June is a refreshing tonic after last month’s discomfort. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment growth rebounded in June, expanding by 287 thousand after an unnervingly weak May. Gains in the information sector were boosted by the return of roughly 40 thousand Verizon workers who had been out on strike in May…. Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee June Meeting – The FOMC Blinks
The intermeeting period between April and June was a roller coaster ride with expectations for the path of monetary policy rising steadily before plunging, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pulling back from its previous strong signals for a rate increase in June. The minutes from the June FOMC meeting reveal that deliberations focused on a surprisingly weak labor… Read More ›
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New Home Sales in May – Onward and Upward, Ignore the Noise
The US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development in a joint release reported that newly constructed single family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 551 thousand in May, down from 586 thousand in April, but up from the average pace of 524 thousand in the first quarter. The monthly numbers can be noisy –… Read More ›
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Existing Home Sales – Real Time Tracking
In normal times roughly 70% of new home purchases are trade-up buyers (i.e., they have an existing home to sell) so the strength of existing home sales affects the strength of new home sales. Two series published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) gauging the strength of the existing home sales sector are: pending sales and sales. The pending… Read More ›
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First Look at the Federal Open Market Committee June Meeting – Loud and Clear II: About Face
While the minutes from the April meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated that most participants favored an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate in June, “under the right conditions,” conditions had other plans (April). And the committee voted unanimously to keep the target range unchanged at the current 0.25%-0.50%. The statement released following… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in May – All Systems: NO
April was a bad month, May is a shocker, and June is a non-starter. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment growth stalled in May, expanding by only 38 thousand. The gains in May were expected to be depressed because of roughly 40 thousand Verizon workers on strike, but even taking that into account May’s gains were well… Read More ›
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Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee April Meeting – Loud and Clear(?)
“Most participants judged that if incoming data were consistent with economic growth picking up in the second quarter, labor market conditions continuing to strengthen, and inflation making progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective, then it likely would be appropriate for the Committee to increase the target range for the federal funds rate in June.” Interpreting the statement released at… Read More ›