Eye On Housing
Author Archives
Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
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First Look at GDP Growth in the Third Quarter – Mind the Details
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the “advance” estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2016 with the standard caveat that this estimate “is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency.” That combined with some concentrated strengths and lingering weaknesses makes the apparent improvement over last quarter… Read More ›
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New Home Sales in September – Continuing Gains, Continuing Headwinds
The US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development in a joint release reported that newly constructed single family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 593 thousand in September, up 3.1% from a downwardly revised August figure, and up 29.8% from September 2015. However, note the monthly data is volatile and September was the lowest… Read More ›
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A Closer Look at the FOMC September Meeting – How Low Can It Go?
Three dissents, all preferring an increase in the federal funds rate at the September meeting, focused on the same core argument: the current level of the unemployment rate signals a tight labor market that will persist for several years, push inflation closer to target and risks overshooting if monetary policy normalization is delayed too long. The overshooting could require a… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in September – Solid, But Still Working On It
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment rose by 156 thousand in September and the unemployment rate inched up to 5.0%. Payrolls for the prior two months were revised in opposite directions with a net reduction of seven thousand. Payroll growth edged down and the unemployment rate edged up but the employment situation in September is better than… Read More ›
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A Third Look at GDP Growth in the Second Quarter
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2016. Real GDP grew at a 1.4% seasonally adjusted annual rate, up modestly from the 1.1% previous estimate. Personal consumption expenditures were slightly weaker, investment was less negative based on less drag from the energy sector and equipment spending, government spending… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in August – Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold
The labor market had its Goldilocks moment in August as payroll employment growth cooled from an overheated pace in June and July but maintained enough warmth to still satisfy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment rose by 151 thousand in August and the unemployment rate held steady at 4.9%. Payrolls for June and July were revised downward… Read More ›
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A Second Look at GDP Growth in the Second Quarter
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the second estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2016 based on more complete source data than was available for the advance estimate. Real GDP grew at a 1.1% seasonally adjusted annual rate, little changed from the 1.2% earlier estimate. The revisions were mixed, consumer spending was slightly stronger, investment… Read More ›
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Second Look at the Federal Open Market Committee July Meeting – Two Bullets Dodged, What Next?
The minutes from the July meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) confirm that the committee viewed the combination of an abrupt slowdown in payroll employment growth in May, and the uncertainty surrounding the implications of the UK referendum on leaving the European Union (“Brexit”) in late June, was too much risk to bear, and chose not to take… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in July – Unemployment Rate Flat, Builders Too
It was a good month for the labor force, builders not so much. The labor force and payrolls expanded smartly but recent gains have been tilted to the service sector while employment producing goods and homes has been flat. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment rose by 255 thousand in July, the labor force expanded by 407… Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the Second Quarter Plus Revisions – And Slim Just Left Town
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2016 plus revised estimates back to 2013. Real GDP grew at a 1.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate in the second quarter and was modestly higher overall in 2015, but the slowdown as the year unfolded was more pronounced than initially estimated,… Read More ›