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Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.

• January’s Employment Situation – This One’s a Little Tricky

  By Robert Denk on February 4, 2011 • (0)

  

  The first thing to understand about today’s employment report is that January is adjustment month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) incorporates new data affecting both the establishment and household surveys. The establishment data is revised based on benchmark data, principally from unemployment insurance tax records from March 2010, and also based on updated seasonal adjustment factors. The process resulted… Read More ›

• Fourth Quarter Real GDP Advance Estimate: Solid Improvement

  By Robert Denk on January 28, 2011 • (0)

  

  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “advance” estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter today. The 3.2 percent annual rate of increase is up from 2.6 percent in the third quarter. The BEA emphasizes that the advance estimates are based on source data that is incomplete or subject to revision. The average absolute value of revision… Read More ›

• December’s Employment Situation – November Undone

  By Robert Denk on January 7, 2011 • (0)

  

  Last month I characterized the uptick in the unemployment rate from 9.6 percent in October to 9.8 percent in November as disappointing but not disastrous, explaining that the move reflected changes in the labor force more than changes in job growth. This month it’s the same story but in the opposite direction. Today’s Employment Situation report for December, released by… Read More ›

• Third Quarter Real GDP Revisions: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

  By Robert Denk on December 22, 2010 • (0)

  

  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “third” estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter today. The revisions are based on more complete data than was available for earlier estimates. Real GDP growth was revised upward to 2.6 percent from the “second” estimate of 2.5 percent. Overall growth was stronger but the composition was weaker than in… Read More ›

• The Employment Situation – Disappointing But Not Disastrous

  By Robert Denk on December 4, 2010 • (0)

  

  Today’s Employment Situation report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), shows a disappointing slowdown in the growth of payroll employment, total non-farm employment rose by 39 thousand in November compared to an increase of 172 thousand in October, and an increase in the unemployment rate to 9.8 percent from 9.6 percent. But it isn’t as bad as it… Read More ›

• S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Show Declines, But Some Perspective Softens The Blow

  By Robert Denk on November 30, 2010 • (0)

  

  Standard & Poor’s released the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices today with the headline for the press release announcing broad-based declines in house prices in the third quarter of 2010. That’s true, the numbers don’t lie, but a little perspective is helpful in understanding today’s release. The national index is down 2 percent in the third quarter after rising 4.7 percent… Read More ›

• Upward Revision To Third Quarter Real GDP Signals Momentum Building In Recovery

  By Robert Denk on November 24, 2010 • (0)

  The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “second” estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter today. Real GDP growth was revised upward to 2.5 percent from the “advance” estimate of 2.0 percent. Real GDP growth was 1.7 percent in the second quarter. The revisions reflect stronger growth in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports and state and local… Read More ›

• Underbuilt Single-Family Housing Markets

  By Robert Denk on November 5, 2010 • (0)

  

  New research by NAHB economists Robert Denk and Paul Emrath highlights the significant extent to which much of the U.S. single-family housing market is underbuilt following the severe decline in production that has taken place since 2006. This “underbuilt” condition is present in the sense that excess or pent-up demand for new construction exists, compared to the long-run trend we would expect if housing, labor and credit markets were… Read More ›

• The Employment Situation – Onward and Upward (and Faster, Please!)

  By Robert Denk on November 5, 2010 • (0)

  

  Today’s Employment Situation report, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), was one small step for the millions of jobless Americans, but one giant leap in the right direction toward a more sustainable recovery. The 151 thousand total payroll jobs added in October pale in comparison to the roughly 8.4 million jobs lost since the beginning of the recession… Read More ›

• GDP Growth Is Stronger Than Expected But Still Subpar, And Housing’s Contribution Is No Surprise

  By Robert Denk on October 29, 2010 • (0)

  

  BEA reported GDP growth of 2.0% in the third quarter today. We’ll take it as good news that this is better than our recent forecast of 1.7%. Encouraging signs include accelerating personal consumption expenditures (PCE) from 2.2% growth last quarter to 2.6% in the third. This is the third consecutive improvement in the pace of PCE, a critical factor for gaining… Read More ›