Eye On Housing
Author Archives
Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
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Federal Open Market Committee December Meeting – The Devil is in the Details
“In their discussion of their economic forecasts, participants emphasized their considerable uncertainty about the timing, size, and composition of any future fiscal and other economic policy initiatives as well as about how those polices might affect aggregate demand and supply. Several participants pointed out that, depending on the mix of tax, spending, regulatory, and other possible policy changes, economic growth… Read More ›
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Third Look at GDP Growth in the Third Quarter
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2016. Real GDP grew at a 3.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate, slightly better than the second estimate of 3.2%. Growth was 1.4% in the second quarter. The upward revision was based largely on slightly faster growth in personal consumption expenditures (PCE)… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee December Meeting – Step Two
Analysts scrutinize the statements released immediately following the meetings of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for hints about the likely direction of policy and implications for the economy. Like Kremlinologists, every adjective, choice of wording and change is examined. In the December statement only one sentence mattered: “In view of realized and… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in November – Step Two
Steady payroll gains, a drop in the unemployment rate, decent wage gains. The stage is set for the Federal Reserve to take a second step on the path to monetary policy normalization at the upcoming December meeting. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment rose by 178 thousand in November and revisions to estimates for the prior two… Read More ›
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Second Look at GDP Growth in the Third Quarter – Better But Beware
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the second estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2016. Real GDP grew at a 3.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate, an upward revision from the advance estimate of 2.9%. Growth was 1.4% in the second quarter. The upward revision was based mainly on faster growth in personal consumption expenditures (PCE)… Read More ›
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A Closer Look at the Federal Open Market Committee November Meeting – Not Much Clarity
“Based on the relatively limited information received since the September FOMC meeting, participants generally agreed that the case for increasing the target range for the federal funds rate had continued to strengthen.” The minutes from the November meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) reveal a broad consensus around the view that the labor market has improved substantially, growth… Read More ›
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New Home Sales in October – Steady Progress On A Long Recovery
The US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development in a joint release reported that newly constructed single family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 563 thousand in October, down slightly from September but continuing the slow, steady upward trend of the last several years. Sales were down 1.9% from September but up 17.8% from… Read More ›
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October Housing Starts – Pop Goes Single Family
A big jump up in single family starts combined with an anticipated rebound in multifamily to push the annual pace of total housing starts above 1.3 million in October. In a joint release the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of single family housing starts was 869 thousand in October,… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in October – No Surprise
The labor market report for October showed steady gains in payroll employment, little change in the unemployment rate and a slight acceleration in wage gains. No surprises. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment rose by 161 thousand in October and upward revisions added 44 thousand to estimates for the prior two months. Payroll gains have averaged 176… Read More ›
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First Look at the Federal Open Market Committee November Meeting – For the Time Being
Analysts scrutinize the statements released immediately following the meetings of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting arm, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) for hints about the likely direction of policy. The statement released after the November meeting was largely a rerun of that following the September meeting. Very few of the words changed. A mild deceleration in household spending… Read More ›