Eye On Housing
Author Archives
Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
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March Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee – Meeting Expectations
Expectations were high that the March meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) would end with an announcement of a 25 basis point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate. Those expectations were met, and at the press conference following the meeting, when asked why the third increase came so quickly, after the first two came… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in February – Fits Like A Glove
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Employment Situation report for February. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 235 thousand and the prior two months were revised a net 9 thousand higher. The unemployment rate edged lower to 4.7%, based on a strong gain in employed persons (447 thousand) that outpaced a strong gain in the labor force (340 thousand), from… Read More ›
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Another Look at GDP Growth in the Fourth Quarter
The second estimate of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) shows negligible revisions, unchanged overall at a 1.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate. Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) grew slightly faster than in the initial estimate, 3.0% annually instead… Read More ›
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House Prices Ten Years After the Peak
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller (CS) US Home Price Indices for December were released today. The national index reached a new high for the month of December and the fourth quarter, but trailed slightly in 2016 overall. The annual average in 2006 was 183.45, slightly ahead of 181.34 in 2016. The annual pace of house price appreciation reaccelerated to 5.2% in… Read More ›
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Minutes From the FOMC January/February Meeting – We’ll Let You Know
The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, released three weeks after the meeting as standard practice, offer a glimpse behind the curtain, providing details of the deliberations, areas of agreement as well as ongoing debate, and specific articulations of viewpoints from unnamed meeting participants, going beyond the statement released immediately following the meeting. Minutes from the January… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in January – Status Quo Good
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its Employment Situation report for January including the standard annual revisions to earlier years. The revisions include benchmarking payroll employment counts to reflect more comprehensive counts, affecting data from April 2015 forward, and updated seasonal adjustment factors, affecting data from January 2012 forward. Historical data from the household survey is not revised but… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee January/February Meeting – No News is Good News
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the monetary policy arm of the Federal Reserve System, concluded its two-day meeting and released a statement announcing no change in the target range for the federal funds rate. The current 50-75 basis point range was expected to be maintained following this first meeting since the December meeting, at which the target range for… Read More ›
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Pending Home Sales in December
The National Association of Realtors released its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) for December. The index tracks signed but not yet closed contracts for existing home sales. In December the index rose 1.6% to 109.0, from 107.3 in November. The PHSI is a leading indicator for existing home sales (closed sales contracts) in the following month or two, the typical… Read More ›
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First Look at GDP Growth in the Fourth Quarter
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the “advance” estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2016. Real GDP grew at a 1.9% seasonally adjusted annual rate, slowing from 3.5% in the third quarter. The BEA emphasizes that the first estimates of quarterly GDP are based on data that are incomplete and/or subject to revision, and subsequent… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in December – Good Enough
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported payroll employment rose by 156 thousand in December and revisions to estimates for the prior two months were mixed but added a net 19 thousand. The unemployment rate rose to 4.7% from 4.6% in November, an increase that barely escaped rounding error magnitude. Average hourly earnings rose 2.9% over the year. A broader… Read More ›