Eye On Housing
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Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
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GDP Growth in the Third Quarter – And It Just Keeps Getting Better
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter. Growth in economic output was revised upward to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.0% from 3.9% in the second and 3.5% in the advance estimate. The pace was 4.6% in the second quarter. The revisions were largely concentrated in personal consumption… Read More ›
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New Home Sales in November – A Better Second Act?
In a joint release the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development reported that newly constructed single family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 438 thousand in November, down slightly from October’s 445 thousand pace (-1.6%). Inventories of new homes for sale inched up 1.4% to 213 thousand. New home sales have moved up or… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee – Patience and Inflation
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded its December meeting releasing a standard summary statement and Chairwoman Janet Yellen presided over a post-meeting press conference. With the asset purchase program a thing of the past as of October the all-consuming question among Fed watchers now is when to expect “liftoff”, the first increase in the… Read More ›
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Inflation at the Producer Level in November – Gas Powered Declines Don’t Help Wood Products Prices
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for November. Inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) declined 0.2% in November from October driven by falling energy prices. Excluding food and energy, core price were down 0.1%. Softwood lumber prices dipped 2.1% for the month but have mostly moved sideways in 2014,… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in November – 3-2-1, Lift Off!
Is the economic recovery finally ready to blast off? The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that payroll employment expanded by 321 thousand in November, an increase well above expectations. Monthly employment gains prior to November have averaged 233 thousand in 2014. Job gains in September and October were revised upward by a total of 44 thousand. The average workweek… Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the Third Quarter – Momentum? Revised Up To Probably
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its second estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter. Growth in economic output was revised upward to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.9% from 3.5% in the advance estimate. The pace was 4.6% in the second quarter. Upward revisions to investment, both fixed and inventory, and personal consumption expenditures were… Read More ›
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FOMC Minutes – A “Considerable Time”
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held in October, providing a more in-depth view of their deliberations than can be gleaned from the post-meeting statement. The minutes make clear the widespread agreement among participants that the asset purchase program had achieved its stated goal of substantial improvement in the outlook for the… Read More ›
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Inflation at the Producer Level in October – Wood Products Soften, Gypsum Rises
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for October. Inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) increased 0.2% in October after a 0.1% decline in September and no change in August. Over the 12 months ending in October prices were up 1.5%. The October increase was fueled by prices for services… Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the Third Quarter – Momentum? Definitely Maybe
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter. Economic output expanded at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.5%, down from the 4.6% rate in the second quarter, but still respectable. The slowdown is no surprise given the rapid pace in the second quarter, driven in part by a bounce back… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee – No October Surprise
The October meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) concluded with no surprises. As widely expected, the committee followed through on its September pledge to end asset purchases this month absent any significant deterioration in the economic outlook between the meetings. The committee reiterated its intention to keep the federal funds rate target in its current 0-25 basis points… Read More ›