Eye On Housing
Author Archives
Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
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Federal Open Market Committee April Minutes – It’s Unofficial: June Is Out
Minutes released from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) April meeting strongly suggest that June is off the table for the timing of the first increase in the federal funds rate. Publically, no one inside the Fed has been willing to admit it, outside the Fed few still consider it a real possibility, but now it’s as official as it… Read More ›
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Producer Prices in April – Up in March, Down in April
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for April. Inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) fell 0.4% in April after a modest increase (0.2%) in March. The decline was dominated by goods, and mainly energy, but prices for services also declined by 0.1%. Prices for gypsum flattened out in April… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in April – Worse in March, Better in April
Job growth in March was worse than originally estimated but bounced back in April. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that payroll employment expanded by 223 thousand in April. Job gains in February were revised upward by 2 thousand to 266 thousand and the March figure was revised downward 41 thousand to 85 thousand. The unemployment rate slipped to… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee April Meeting – Is the Future Receding?
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), concluded its April meeting with a statement downgrading its assessment of the economic outlook but offered no indication of any change in policy with respect to the timing of the first increase in interest rates. The committee stuck to its language from the March statement, repeating that… Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the First Quarter – Stormy Weather?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015. Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.2% in the fourth quarter of 2014. The slowdown in economic growth was expected but the extent of the slowdown was a surprise. Harsh weather, a strong dollar,… Read More ›
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Producer Prices in March – Positive for the Economy, Negative for Building Materials, But In a Good Way
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for March, reporting that inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) increased 0.2% in March after a string of monthly declines. The overall increase was led by increasing prices for energy, mainly gasoline. Prices for services rose 0.1%. Rising energy prices and any indication… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee March Minutes – Good Inflation, I Can’t Define It But I Know It When I See It
Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting March 17-18 reveal relatively little new information about the deliberations beyond what was available from the post-meeting statement and press conference (March Meeting). Economic growth appears to have moderated somewhat in the first quarter, the labor market has improved markedly but indicators of underutilization remain, and… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in March – Snow Daze? Fed Delays
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that payroll employment expanded by a disappointing 126 thousand in March, well below expectations. Job gains in January and February were revised downward by a total of 69 thousand. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.5%. The question now is whether (weather) this is a one-off disappointment or a something more ominous. It’s… Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the Fourth Quarter – Third Estimate
In the third estimate of real GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2014 the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2%, unchanged from the second estimate. The composition of growth changed marginally, but the overall performance of the economy in the fourth quarter was unchanged. Upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE), residential… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee March Meeting – Where Has All The Mystery Gone?
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s main point at the press conference following the conclusion of the March 17-18 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was that the Fed was prepared to be “less patient, but not impatient” with regard to the timing of the first hike in interest rates, presumably to rattle the cage of the June meeting consensus that… Read More ›