Eye On Housing
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Robert Denk is Assistant Vice President for Forecasting and Analysis at the National Association of Home Builders. His responsibilities include developing econometric models of national, state and metropolitan area housing activity, as well as providing ad hoc analyses on a range of housing sector issues. Mr. Denk has been an economist in Washington DC for over 20 years working in the private, non-profit and government sectors. Mr. Denk received a B.S. from the College of Social Sciences at Michigan State University and an M.A. in Economics from Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University.
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GDP Growth in the Second Quarter – Consumer Strength, Better Data
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “advance” estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2015 and revisions to historical estimates back to 2012. Real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3%, accelerating from a 0.6% rate in the first quarter. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) contributed most of the growth (2.0%). Contributions from… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee July Meeting – Afternoon Tea
At 2:00 pm today the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), concluded its July meeting and released the standard post-meeting statement. Let the reading of the tea leaves begin. Analysts’ expectations for the meeting were for no major changes and the FOMC delivered: marginal changes in the assessment of economic conditions (more later), no… Read More ›
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New Home Sales in June – A Bumpy Ride Up
The US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development in a joint release reported that newly constructed single family homes sold at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 482 thousand in June, down from May’s 517 thousand pace (-6.8%), but up from the June 2014 pace of 408 thousand (18.1%). The inventory of new homes for sale inched… Read More ›
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Producer Prices in June – Gas Prices Up (Again), Fire Season Caution For Lumber
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for June. Inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) rose 0.4% in June after a 0.5% increase in May. The increase was based on rising prices for both goods (0.7%) and services (0.3%). Within goods, a 4.3% increase in the price of gasoline followed… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee June Meeting – A September to Remember
The minutes from the meetings of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), are regularly released three weeks after the meeting and provide a more detailed view of the deliberations than the statement released at the conclusion of the meeting. The most valuable insight from the minutes of the June meeting is that all… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in June – Two Steps Forward, One Step Back
Strong job gains in April and May were revised downward by 60 thousand and the unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points based on a reversal of the labor market expansion in May. Overall, the employment situation in June was decent, but the recovery from the weakness in March was less vibrant than originally estimated. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)… Read More ›
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Federal Open Market Committee June Meeting – Connect the Dots
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy setting committee, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), concluded its June meeting and confirmed the generally held expectation of no increase in the federal funds rate at this meeting. While the June meeting was widely regarded as the likely timing of “lift-off” late last year and early this year, the consensus had shifted to later… Read More ›
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Producer Prices in May – Gas Prices Up, Building Materials Prices Down
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Producer Price Indexes (PPI) for May. Inflation in prices received by producers (prior to sales to consumers) rose 0.5% in May after declining 0.4% in April. The increase was based on rising prices for goods, prices for services were unchanged. Within goods, a 17.0% jump in the price of gasoline dominated the… Read More ›
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The Employment Situation in May – Better Than You Think
A strong jobs report for May adds strength to the argument that the weakness in March was an aberration. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that payroll employment expanded by 280 thousand in May. Job gains in March were revised upward by 34 thousand to 119 thousand and April was revised downward 2 thousand to 221 thousand. The unemployment… Read More ›
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GDP Growth in the First Quarter – First Quarter Curse?
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised real GDP growth down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.7% in the first quarter of 2015 from an initial estimate of +0.2%. The main factors were an upward revision to imports (which subtract from GDP growth) and a downward revision to inventory investment. Real GDP grew at an annual rate of… Read More ›