Eye On Housing
Disposable Personal Income Dips in June
The most recent data release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that personal income edged up in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $20,414 billion. The increase in personal income was largely due to the increase in compensation of employees, which was partly offset by the declines in the government social benefits, including the economic… Read More ›
Recent Posts
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Prospective Buyers Continue to Turn into Active Buyers
Of the 17% of American adults considering a future home purchase in the second quarter of 2021, 61% have moved beyond planning and are already actively trying to find one to buy. This share of active buyers has increased for six straight quarters, a trend that began after the final quarter of 2019 when it stood at 43%. In the… Read More ›
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Housing Nearly 17% of GDP
Thanks to a surge in residential investment during 2020, housing’s share of GDP remains elevated compared to recent years. Last year’s market conditions involved a renewed focus on the importance of home, an evolving geography of housing demand, and a lack of for-sale inventory. Housing will continue to expand in 2021, although as the rest of the economy recovers, the… Read More ›
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GDP Back to Pre-Pandemic Level
In the second quarter of 2021, real GDP surged and returned its pre-pandemic level as the economy continued to reopen. This quarter’s growth reflected strong gains for consumer and state and local government spending. However, the second quarter gain did come in below consensus estimates. According to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real gross… Read More ›
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Federal Reserve and Housing: No Taper Talk Yet
Today’s Federal Open Market Committee announcement did not provide an explicit reference to an expected tapering of purchases of Treasury ($80 billion a month) and mortgage-backed ($40 billion a month) securities. In addition, as part of its ongoing accommodative policy stance, the Fed held its benchmark target rate near zero percent. In Chairman Powell’s press conference remarks, he stated, “The… Read More ›
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Perceptions of Housing Affordability Worsen
In the final quarter of 2019, a series-high of 82% of prospective buyers could afford less than half the homes available in their markets. The share went on to decline throughout 2020 (i.e. affordability perceptions improved), reaching 63% by the final quarter of that year. But affordability expectations have worsened recently. In the first and second quarters of 2021, the… Read More ›
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Second Quarter of 2021 Homeownership Rate at 65.4%
The Census Bureau’s Housing Vacancy Survey (CPS/HVS) reported the U.S. homeownership rate declined to 65.4% in the second quarter of 2021. Compared to prior reports, the data was affected less significantly by the pandemic, since in-person interviews were back in 99% of the sample area. The national homeowner vacancy rate stayed at a record low of 0.9%, while the rental… Read More ›
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Buyers’ Perceptions of Housing Inventory Deteriorate
In the first quarter of 2018, the starting point of the Housing Trends Report (HTR), only 16% of buyers expected easier availability for a home in the months ahead. The share soared to 36% by the final quarter of 2020 (during the COVID-19 pandemic), but then went on to decline to 33% and 28%, respectively, in the first two quarters… Read More ›
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New Home Sales Slow in June
As supply-side challenges continue, June recorded a decline of 6.6% for sales of newly-constructed single family homes, according to estimates from the Census Bureau and HUD. The June seasonally adjusted annual rate (676K) was the lowest since April 2020, due to builders slowing sales as a consequence of higher material costs and declining availability of labor, material and lots. Higher… Read More ›
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Have High Prices Reduced New Construction Interest?
The share of prospective home buyers looking to buy a newly-built home peaked at 42% in the fourth quarter of 2020, before falling to 38% and 33%, respectively, in the first two quarters of 2021. The drop is most likely the direct result of strong gains in new home prices in 2021, which have been driven by double-digit growth in… Read More ›