NAHB analysis of the Census Bureau’s quarterly tax data shows that $601 billion in taxes were paid by property owners over the four quarters ending in Q2 2019.^[1] It has now been more than seven years since four-quarter property tax revenues declined.

After decelerating each quarter in 2018, the four-quarter growth rate of property tax revenue has increased in the first two quarters in 2019. Increasing by 18.4%, corporate income tax revenues grew at a much faster pace than any other major category of tax receipts on a year-over-year basis. State and local individual income tax revenues grew 4.2% while property and sales tax collections increased by 4.3% and 3.6%, respectively.

Property taxes accounted for 39.1% of state and local tax receipts—the first quarterly decline in three quarters. In terms of the share of total receipts, property taxes are followed by individual income taxes (29.1%), sales taxes (27.4%), and corporate taxes (4.4%).

The ratio of property tax revenue to total tax revenue from the four sources shown above remains 2.1 percentage points above its pre-housing boom average of 37%.

The share of property tax receipts among the four major tax revenue sources naturally changes with fluctuations in non-property tax collections. Non-property tax receipts including individual income, corporate income, and sales tax revenues, by nature, are much more sensitive to fluctuations in the business cycle and the accompanying changes in consumer spending (affecting sales tax revenues) and job availability (affecting aggregate income). In contrast, property tax collections have proven relatively stable, reflecting the long-run stability of tangible property values as well as the smoothing effects of lagging assessments and annual adjustments. Property tax receipts are the least volatile revenue source, followed by sales taxes, individual income taxes, and corporate income taxes, in order of increasing volatility.^[2]

[1] Census data for property tax collections include taxes paid for all real estate assets (as well as personal property), including owner-occupied homes, rental housing, commercial real estate, and agriculture. Owner-occupied and rental housing units combine to make housing’s share the largest among these subgroups.

[2] If the anomalous data from 2009-2010 are excluded, sales tax receipts are the least volatile, followed by property taxes, individual income taxes, and corporate income taxes.

Tags: corporate income tax, individual income tax, property taxes, sales taxes, state and local government, state and local taxes