The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016, reporting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.5%. Economic growth has declined steadily from its recent peak of 3.9% in the second quarter of 2015. Declining activity was broad based enough to be troubling: slowing personal consumption expenditures (PCE), declines… Read More ›

# Tag Archive for ‘macroeconomics’

## GDP Growth in the Fourth Quarter – Getting Better

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015, reporting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.4%. The three separate estimates for the quarter, based on increasingly better (more complete) data, moved GDP growth from 0.7% to 1.0% to 1.4%. The latest revisions reflect faster growth of personal consumption… Read More ›

## GDP Growth in the Fourth Quarter – Out Like a Lamb

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the advance estimate of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015, reporting a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.7%. GDP grew at an annual pace of 3.9% and 2.0% in the second and third quarters, respectively. The BEA emphasizes that the advance estimate is based on incomplete data and will be… Read More ›

## GDP Growth in the Third Quarter – Third Time’s A Charm

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the third estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2015, subtracting 0.1 percentage point from the second estimate, bringing growth down to 2.0%. GDP grew at an annual pace of 3.9% in the second quarter. As with the revision from advance estimate to second, the most significant change between the… Read More ›

## GDP Growth in the Third Quarter – Through the Looking Glass

Up is down and down is up. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the second estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2015, boosting growth 0.6 percentage points to 2.1% from the advance estimate of 1.5%. Unfortunately, the boost came mainly from inventory investment, which unwound the much needed correction in the advance estimate. Personal consumption… Read More ›

## Real GDP Growth Slows in the Third Quarter

Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “advance” estimate of real GDP growth for the third quarter of 2015. According to the release, in the third quarter real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.5 percent, down from 3.9 percent in the second quarter. Monthly data that had been trickling in, especially data on inventories, made… Read More ›

## GDP Growth in the Second Quarter – Solid Growth

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its third estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2015, raising growth up 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%. The bulk of the additional growth was concentrated in personal consumption expenditures and business fixed investment. Growth was 0.6% in the first quarter. Overall, the composition of growth looks good; strength in… Read More ›

## GDP Growth in the Second Quarter – Upside Surprise, Implications for Fed Action?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its second estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2015, revising the earlier 2.3% growth estimate up to 3.7%. The revisions were broad based with faster growth in consumption, investment, government spending and trade adding to the upward revision. Business investment contributed 0.8 of the 1.4 percentage point increase, followed… Read More ›

## GDP Growth in the Second Quarter – Consumer Strength, Better Data

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its “advance” estimate of real GDP growth for the second quarter of 2015 and revisions to historical estimates back to 2012. Real GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.3%, accelerating from a 0.6% rate in the first quarter. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) contributed most of the growth (2.0%). Contributions from… Read More ›

## GDP Growth in the First Quarter – First Quarter Curse?

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised real GDP growth down to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of -0.7% in the first quarter of 2015 from an initial estimate of +0.2%. The main factors were an upward revision to imports (which subtract from GDP growth) and a downward revision to inventory investment. Real GDP grew at an annual rate of… Read More ›